TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Tiutiunnyk vs Yevhenii Holoborodko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12108111113119119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:33 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tiutiunnyk to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Maksym Tiutiunnyk @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingMaksym Tiutiunnyk above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 105 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Maksym Tiutiunnyk at 54.9%
105 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Tiutiunnyk 21–21 Yevhenii Holoborodko Dead even across their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 9–1Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 16:3354.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-21 in 42
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tiutiunnyk 1600 vs Holoborodko 1538
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tiutiunnyk 20% vs Holoborodko 60%
Holoborodko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tiutiunnyk 40% vs Holoborodko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tiutiunnyk -3 · Holoborodko -1
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Tiutiunnyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tiutiunnyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTiutiunnyk 1.727 / Holoborodko 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Tiutiunnyk)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218843
Tiutiunnyk1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 67 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it79% 37 of 47
Holoborodko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 69 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTiutiunnyk9wins
AwayHoloborodko1wins
6 of 10 to a deciderTiutiunnyk leads 9–1, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTiutiunnyk100%5 of 5
AwayHoloborodko20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tiutiunnyk5Holoborodko5n = 10split evenly
S2Tiutiunnyk6Holoborodko4n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 6 of 10
S3Tiutiunnyk6Holoborodko4n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 6 of 10
S4Tiutiunnyk7Holoborodko2n = 9Tiutiunnyk took 7 of 9
S5Tiutiunnyk4Holoborodko1n = 5Tiutiunnyk took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTiutiunnykHoloborodkoT − HBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.938.1+5.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTiutiunnykHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 410 vs 343 / 66749.5%51.4%203 / 410 vs 343 / 667Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TiutiunnykTiutiunnyk 1.73/Holoborodko 2.00
Hit
What we said
54.9%
Tiutiunnyk · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Maksym Tiutiunnyk @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
3–2
Tiutiunnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 24 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk4361112143Y. Holoborodko3711410121
WSep 23 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk45117511113Y. Holoborodko3651111632
WSep 20 · 06:30M. Tiutiunnyk45711511113Y. Holoborodko4911911992
LSep 19 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk4481111952Y. Holoborodko49119711113
WSep 13 · 05:00M. Tiutiunnyk4211911113Y. Holoborodko29611931
WSep 12 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk5410111012113Y. Holoborodko49127121082
WSep 10 · 17:40M. Tiutiunnyk331111113Y. Holoborodko189720
WSep 9 · 17:40M. Tiutiunnyk45131110113Y. Holoborodko291121241
WSep 8 · 08:00M. Tiutiunnyk44116115113Y. Holoborodko4791191172
M. Tiutiunnyk10
LSep 30 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.531111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.386590LSep 30 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn1.6791111123M. Tiutiunnyk2.101149101LSep 30 · 12:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.67811131262D. Habrelyan2.101181510113WSep 30 · 11:40I. Efimenko1.837119111M. Tiutiunnyk1.8311211133LSep 26 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.6111168742O. Blashkun2.204141111113LSep 26 · 15:10A. Droshchynskyi1.3611117113M. Tiutiunnyk3.00971171WSep 26 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.731110111153Y. Holoborodko2.0013129812WSep 26 · 13:10V. Ishchuk2.201271291M. Tiutiunnyk1.61101114103LSep 26 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.44791161Y. Makovka2.6311117113WSep 24 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.9171111113A. Zozulia1.80115961
Y. Holoborodko10
LSep 30 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.6311812972D. Habrelyan1.449111011113WSep 30 · 14:10I. Efimenko1.73611751Y. Holoborodko2.0011611113LSep 30 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.441213113Y. Holoborodko2.63101180WSep 30 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.73101214782Y. Holoborodko2.0012101211113WSep 26 · 17:40Y. Makovka2.75117111172Y. Holoborodko1.40131199113LSep 26 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.731110111153Y. Holoborodko2.0013129812LSep 26 · 12:10A. Droshchynskyi1.361111123Y. Holoborodko3.0065100WSep 26 · 11:10V. Ishchuk2.002570Y. Holoborodko1.731111113WSep 24 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko2.2081113113O. Blashkun1.611191191LSep 24 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.67115511113Y. Holoborodko2.1081111952
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