TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Merzlikin vs Maksym Tiutiunnyk 2-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 2
Set by set
11991111791102
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:22 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Final score unavailable, not graded hereValerii Merzlikin to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Pick
NoneHow it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Maksym Tiutiunnyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 0-2
Point 80 set 5, 0-2 · our read held Valerii Merzlikin at 56.2%
80 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 26–15 Maksym Tiutiunnyk Maksym Tiutiunnyk has won 15 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:2256.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Merzlikin
Not yet
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-15 in 41
Merzlikin
Not yet
gap of 11 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1571 vs Tiutiunnyk 1599
Tiutiunnyk
Not yet
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 60% vs Tiutiunnyk 40%
Merzlikin
Not yet
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 40% vs Tiutiunnyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin +1 · Tiutiunnyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Merzlikin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 1.666 / Tiutiunnyk 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Merzlikin)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270606
Merzlikin1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 14 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it71% 10 of 14
Tiutiunnyk2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 37 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerzlikin6wins
AwayTiutiunnyk4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMerzlikin leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin83.3%5 of 6
AwayTiutiunnyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin6Tiutiunnyk4n = 10Merzlikin took 6 of 10
S2Merzlikin7Tiutiunnyk3n = 10Merzlikin took 7 of 10
S3Merzlikin5Tiutiunnyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Merzlikin1Tiutiunnyk3n = 4Tiutiunnyk took 3 of 4
S5Merzlikin2Tiutiunnyk1n = 3Merzlikin took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerzlikinTiutiunnykM − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.831.5+5.3per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinTiutiunnykBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 586 vs 203 / 40844.7%49.8%262 / 586 vs 203 / 408Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MerzlikinMerzlikin 1.67/Tiutiunnyk 2.10
Not settled
What we said
56.2%
Merzlikin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–2
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 11:10V. Merzlikin2371060M. Tiutiunnyk341112113
WSep 30 · 15:40V. Merzlikin331111113M. Tiutiunnyk206590
WSep 24 · 13:10V. Merzlikin521111109113M. Tiutiunnyk3534121152
WSep 19 · 15:10V. Merzlikin331111113M. Tiutiunnyk161960
LSep 12 · 13:10V. Merzlikin33116971M. Tiutiunnyk4291111113
LSep 9 · 13:40V. Merzlikin50101281192M. Tiutiunnyk491210115113
WAug 5 · 13:10V. Merzlikin331111113M. Tiutiunnyk178540
LJun 20 · 13:10V. Merzlikin218760M. Tiutiunnyk331111113
WMar 29 · 09:30V. Merzlikin361311123M. Tiutiunnyk25114100
WMar 28 · 14:40V. Merzlikin549131110113M. Tiutiunnyk44111141262
V. Merzlikin10
WOct 10 · 13:10V. Merzlikin1.221111113Y. Makovka4.0048100LOct 10 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.73871131V. Evtodiy2.0011114113WOct 8 · 16:40O. Kuzyshyn1.577750V. Merzlikin2.251111113LOct 8 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.91911651V. Shvidkiy1.8011911113WOct 8 · 14:40V. Merzlikin2.3811114133A. Zozulia1.536711111LOct 8 · 13:10V. Merzlikin3.75911491A. Droshchynskyi1.2511311113LOct 8 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.83591161Y. Holoborodko1.8311116113WOct 1 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov1.44891181V. Merzlikin2.6311118113LOct 1 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.80711119102Y. Holoborodko1.91113711123LOct 1 · 14:40V. Merzlikin2.1010910V. Maksuta1.671211113
M. Tiutiunnyk10
WOct 10 · 12:40A. Droshchynskyi1.3612261192M. Tiutiunnyk3.001011116113LOct 10 · 10:40Y. Skorobahatyi2.2571112113M. Tiutiunnyk1.571181061WOct 1 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko2.006880M. Tiutiunnyk1.731111113LOct 1 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.759950V. Maksuta1.401111113LOct 1 · 14:10E. Hrytsenko1.8311117113M. Tiutiunnyk1.83741161LOct 1 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.501111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.505840WOct 1 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.4471060M. Tiutiunnyk2.631112113WSep 30 · 17:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.731281111113Y. Holoborodko2.00101113992LSep 30 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.531111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.386590LSep 30 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn1.6791111123M. Tiutiunnyk2.101149101
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