TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Merzlikin vs Vadim Shvidkiy 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911119611511––
Vadim Shvidkiy
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:38 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVadim Shvidkiy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Vadim Shvidkiy below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 73 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Vadim Shvidkiy at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:3854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Shvidkiy
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 40% vs Shvidkiy 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 30% vs Shvidkiy 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin +1 · Shvidkiy -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Shvidkiy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shvidkiy form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 1.909 / Shvidkiy 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Shvidkiy)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261495
Merzlikin1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 26 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back18% 4 of 22
Shvidkiy1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinShvidkiyBasisWin rate · lifetime260 / 582 vs 4 / 1044.7%40%260 / 582 vs 4 / 10Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
Forecastthe model predicts this market
Match Winner
ShvidkiyMerzlikin 1.91/Shvidkiy 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Shvidkiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Shvidkiy won
Handicap · Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
V. Merzlikin10
WOct 8 · 14:40V. Merzlikin2.3811114133A. Zozulia1.536711111LOct 8 · 13:10V. Merzlikin3.75911491A. Droshchynskyi1.2511311113LOct 8 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.83591161Y. Holoborodko1.8311116113WOct 1 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov1.44891181V. Merzlikin2.6311118113LOct 1 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.80711119102Y. Holoborodko1.91113711123LOct 1 · 14:40V. Merzlikin2.1010910V. Maksuta1.671211113LOct 1 · 13:10V. Merzlikin2.00113761E. Hrytsenko1.7351111113LOct 1 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.4471060M. Tiutiunnyk2.631112113LSep 30 · 16:40O. Kuzyshyn1.80911119113V. Merzlikin1.9111871192WSep 30 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.531111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.386590
V. Shvidkiy10
LOct 8 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn1.831111123V. Shvidkiy1.8375100WOct 8 · 12:38V. Shvidkiy2.381291213113A. Zozulia1.531411101182LFeb 20 · 19:30V. Sidorenko—118117113V. Shvidkiy—41141182LFeb 20 · 18:20A. Zaitsev—611111103V. Shvidkiy—1194801WFeb 20 · 17:10A. Yaroshenko—1199401V. Shvidkiy—611111103WFeb 20 · 15:25A. Zaitsev—11108601V. Shvidkiy—612111103WFeb 20 · 14:15V. Sidorenko—111011401V. Shvidkiy—512131103LFeb 20 · 13:40V. Shvidkiy—12118901A. Yaroshenko—149111103LFeb 13 · 18:20A. Scherinskiy—911118113V. Shvidkiy—11971142LFeb 13 · 17:45V. Shvidkiy—81111272V. Ivanchatenko—113711113
Upcoming Matches
V. Merzlikin
Nothing scheduled
V. Shvidkiy
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