TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Merzlikin vs Volodymir Maksuta 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012911111––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:36 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeVolodymir Maksuta to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Volodymir Maksuta below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 1-11
Point 54 set 3, 1-11 · our read held Volodymir Maksuta at 56.2%
54 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 5–3 Volodymir Maksuta Volodymir Maksuta has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3656.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Maksuta
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Merzlikin
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1567 vs Maksuta 1664
Maksuta
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 40% vs Maksuta 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 40% vs Maksuta 60%
Maksuta
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin -3 · Maksuta -1
Merzlikin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Maksuta) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksuta form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 2.10 / Maksuta 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Maksuta)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13224833
Merzlikin2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 29 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back27% 11 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Maksuta1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 85 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it98% 48 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it82% 66 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMerzlikin5wins
AwayMaksuta3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderMerzlikin leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin60%3 of 5
AwayMaksuta33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin5Maksuta3n = 8Merzlikin took 5 of 8
S2Merzlikin5Maksuta3n = 8Merzlikin took 5 of 8
S3Merzlikin2Maksuta6n = 8Maksuta took 6 of 8
S4Merzlikin3Maksuta3n = 6split evenly
S5Merzlikin2Maksuta1n = 3Merzlikin took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricMerzlikinMaksutaMerzlikin − MaksutaBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match36.939.1−2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinMaksutaBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 591 vs 180 / 31344.5%57.5%263 / 591 vs 180 / 313Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaksutaMerzlikin 2.10/Maksuta 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Maksuta · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Maksuta won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 24 · 16:40V. Merzlikin4715851272V. Maksuta5613111110113
LSep 17 · 16:40V. Merzlikin32115791V. Maksuta4291111113
WAug 13 · 13:40V. Merzlikin331111113V. Maksuta196580
LAug 5 · 11:10V. Merzlikin123540V. Maksuta331111113
WMar 11 · 13:40V. Merzlikin50131167133V. Maksuta521181111112
WFeb 26 · 15:40V. Merzlikin38111123113V. Maksuta3862111182
WNov 26 · 16:10V. Merzlikin4691111153V. Maksuta341137131
V. Merzlikin10
LOct 1 · 13:10V. Merzlikin2.00113761E. Hrytsenko1.7351111113LOct 1 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.4471060M. Tiutiunnyk2.631112113LSep 30 · 16:40O. Kuzyshyn1.80911119113V. Merzlikin1.9111871192WSep 30 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.531111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.386590WSep 30 · 14:40V. Merzlikin1.502111411113D. Habrelyan2.50119121392WSep 30 · 13:10V. Merzlikin2.63661111113I. Efimenko1.4411112562LSep 30 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.73101214782Y. Holoborodko2.0012101211113LSep 24 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.6713111110113V. Merzlikin2.1015851272WSep 24 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.67115511113Y. Holoborodko2.1081111952LSep 24 · 14:40V. Merzlikin2.20111187102A. Zozulia1.61591111123
V. Maksuta10
LOct 1 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.751311113V. Maksuta1.4011770WOct 1 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.83119961V. Maksuta1.8351111113LSep 28 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.501181091M. Mrykh2.5091112113WSep 28 · 15:10V. Maksuta1.8012711113E. Hrytsenko1.911011441LSep 28 · 13:40V. Maksuta1.9161111942O. Strutinskiy1.80117811113LSep 28 · 12:10V. Maksuta2.386116101A. Derevianko1.5311911123WSep 28 · 10:40V. Maksuta1.83811411113O. Zhyrnov1.8311611782WSep 24 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.6713111110113V. Merzlikin2.1015851272WSep 24 · 15:10V. Maksuta1.4441211113M. Tiutiunnyk2.631110621WSep 24 · 13:40V. Maksuta1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.502970
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