TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yevhenii Holoborodko vs Volodymir Maksuta 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311117117––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:29 and never touched: 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeVolodymir Maksuta to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYevhenii Holoborodko above · Volodymir Maksuta below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 60 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Volodymir Maksuta at 70.3%
60 points played in total.
H2H Yevhenii Holoborodko 13–16 Volodymir Maksuta Yevhenii Holoborodko has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2970.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Maksuta
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-16 in 29
Maksuta
Wrong
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holoborodko 1518 vs Maksuta 1684
Maksuta
Wrong
both rated, 165 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holoborodko 20% vs Maksuta 40%
Maksuta
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holoborodko 40% vs Maksuta 70%
Maksuta
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holoborodko -3 · Maksuta +1
Holoborodko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Maksuta) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksuta form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoloborodko 2.75 / Maksuta 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Maksuta)-1.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13224782
Holoborodko2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 70 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 64
Maksuta1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 85 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it98% 48 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it82% 66 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoloborodko4wins
AwayMaksuta6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMaksuta leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoloborodko33.3%1 of 3
AwayMaksuta57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holoborodko3Maksuta7n = 10Maksuta took 7 of 10
S2Holoborodko2Maksuta8n = 10Maksuta took 8 of 10
S3Holoborodko2Maksuta8n = 10Maksuta took 8 of 10
S4Holoborodko4Maksuta3n = 7Holoborodko took 4 of 7
S5Holoborodko4Maksuta0n = 4Holoborodko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoloborodkoMaksutaH − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.441.2−5.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoloborodkoMaksutaBasisWin rate · lifetime343 / 669 vs 180 / 31251.3%57.7%343 / 669 vs 180 / 312Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaksutaHoloborodko 2.75/Maksuta 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.3%
Maksuta · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Holoborodko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 13:40Y. Holoborodko182970V. Maksuta331111113
LSep 17 · 13:10Y. Holoborodko26123651V. Maksuta43101111113
WSep 12 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko501011513113V. Maksuta50128111182
WSep 10 · 12:10Y. Holoborodko48116911113V. Maksuta4291111562
WJul 30 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko49811712113V. Maksuta44117111052
WJul 23 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko51991111113V. Maksuta4411119762
LJul 16 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko2037100V. Maksuta341111123
LJul 14 · 14:10Y. Holoborodko28481151V. Maksuta4211119113
LJul 9 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko4111117121V. Maksuta4791311143
LJun 23 · 01:10Y. Holoborodko237880V. Maksuta331111113
Y. Holoborodko10
LOct 1 · 11:40E. Hrytsenko1.531111113Y. Holoborodko2.382780LSep 30 · 17:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.731281111113Y. Holoborodko2.00101113992LSep 30 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.6311812972D. Habrelyan1.449111011113WSep 30 · 14:10I. Efimenko1.73611751Y. Holoborodko2.0011611113LSep 30 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.441213113Y. Holoborodko2.63101180WSep 30 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.73101214782Y. Holoborodko2.0012101211113WSep 26 · 17:40Y. Makovka2.75117111172Y. Holoborodko1.40131199113LSep 26 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.731110111153Y. Holoborodko2.0013129812LSep 26 · 12:10A. Droshchynskyi1.361111123Y. Holoborodko3.0065100WSep 26 · 11:10V. Ishchuk2.002570Y. Holoborodko1.731111113
V. Maksuta10
WOct 1 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.83119961V. Maksuta1.8351111113LSep 28 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.501181091M. Mrykh2.5091112113WSep 28 · 15:10V. Maksuta1.8012711113E. Hrytsenko1.911011441LSep 28 · 13:40V. Maksuta1.9161111942O. Strutinskiy1.80117811113LSep 28 · 12:10V. Maksuta2.386116101A. Derevianko1.5311911123WSep 28 · 10:40V. Maksuta1.83811411113O. Zhyrnov1.8311611782WSep 24 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.6713111110113V. Merzlikin2.1015851272WSep 24 · 15:10V. Maksuta1.4441211113M. Tiutiunnyk2.631110621WSep 24 · 13:40V. Maksuta1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.502970WSep 24 · 12:10V. Maksuta1.33791111113O. Blashkun3.2511117822
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