TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Merzlikin vs Viktor Evtodiy 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811711114311––
Viktor Evtodiy
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:56 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeValerii Merzlikin to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Viktor Evtodiy below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 66 set 4, 3-11 · our read held Valerii Merzlikin at 54.9%
66 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 4–1 Viktor Evtodiy Viktor Evtodiy has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5654.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Merzlikin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Merzlikin
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1569 vs Evtodiy 1607
Evtodiy
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 40% vs Evtodiy 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 30% vs Evtodiy 60%
Evtodiy
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin +1 · Evtodiy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Merzlikin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merzlikin form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 1.727 / Evtodiy 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Merzlikin)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13271028
Merzlikin1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 14 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it71% 10 of 14
Evtodiy2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 44 days ago (Aug 27) · back after a break
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMerzlikin4wins
AwayEvtodiy1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderMerzlikin leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin75%3 of 4
AwayEvtodiyn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin4Evtodiy1n = 5Merzlikin took 4 of 5
S2Merzlikin3Evtodiy2n = 5Merzlikin took 3 of 5
S3Merzlikin2Evtodiy3n = 5Evtodiy took 3 of 5
S4Merzlikin2Evtodiy2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricMerzlikinEvtodiyM − EBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match42.438.0+4.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinEvtodiyBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 584 vs 11 / 2044.7%55%261 / 584 vs 11 / 20Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MerzlikinMerzlikin 1.73/Evtodiy 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Merzlikin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Evtodiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 27 · 12:40V. Merzlikin50912711113V. Evtodiy44111011572
WFeb 25 · 11:50V. Merzlikin4611915113V. Evtodiy337111321
WFeb 24 · 20:50V. Merzlikin45111238113V. Evtodiy46510111192
LJan 14 · 08:20V. Merzlikin3811121051V. Evtodiy4581412113
WJan 13 · 20:20V. Merzlikin331111113V. Evtodiy225980
V. Merzlikin10
WOct 8 · 16:40O. Kuzyshyn1.577750V. Merzlikin2.251111113LOct 8 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.91911651V. Shvidkiy1.8011911113WOct 8 · 14:40V. Merzlikin2.3811114133A. Zozulia1.536711111LOct 8 · 13:10V. Merzlikin3.75911491A. Droshchynskyi1.2511311113LOct 8 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.83591161Y. Holoborodko1.8311116113WOct 1 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov1.44891181V. Merzlikin2.6311118113LOct 1 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.80711119102Y. Holoborodko1.91113711123LOct 1 · 14:40V. Merzlikin2.1010910V. Maksuta1.671211113LOct 1 · 13:10V. Merzlikin2.00113761E. Hrytsenko1.7351111113LOct 1 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.4471060M. Tiutiunnyk2.631112113
V. Evtodiy10
WAug 27 · 17:40V. Evtodiy2.0041111113Y. Holoborodko1.73119591LAug 27 · 15:40O. Zhyrnov2.0091111113V. Evtodiy1.73116591LAug 27 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn1.731141011113V. Evtodiy2.0041112672LAug 27 · 12:40V. Evtodiy1.80111011572V. Merzlikin1.91912711113WAug 27 · 11:40Y. Volkov1.911169101V. Evtodiy1.8071111123WMay 24 · 11:00Y. Makovka2.20119111032V. Evtodiy1.61911812113WMay 24 · 10:00O. Alieksieev2.6391070V. Evtodiy1.441112113WMay 24 · 08:30O. Zhyrnov2.00117771V. Evtodiy1.7391111113WMay 24 · 06:30A. Droshchynskyi2.0011971192V. Evtodiy1.73911118113LMay 24 · 04:30Y. Bondarenko1.91111186113V. Evtodiy1.8095111142
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