TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Hanke vs Filip Kubos 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811116811511––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:54 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Hanke to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Hanke above · Filip Kubos below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Tomas Hanke at 64.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hanke 4–1 Filip Kubos Filip Kubos has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5464.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hanke
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Hanke
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hanke 1460 vs Kubos 1494
Kubos
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hanke 40% vs Kubos 20%
Hanke
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hanke 40% vs Kubos 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hanke -1 · Kubos -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Hanke) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubos form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHanke 1.444 / Kubos 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Hanke)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270502
Hanke1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 74 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it77% 52 of 68
Kubos2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 75 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back25% 26 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHanke4wins
AwayKubos1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderHanke leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHanke100%3 of 3
AwayKubosn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hanke3Kubos2n = 5Hanke took 3 of 5
S2Hanke3Kubos2n = 5Hanke took 3 of 5
S3Hanke3Kubos2n = 5Hanke took 3 of 5
S4Hanke3Kubos1n = 4Hanke took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricHankeKubosH − KBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match41.435.6+5.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHankeKubosBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 449 vs 357 / 72252.6%49.5%236 / 449 vs 357 / 722Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HankeHanke 1.44/Kubos 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Hanke · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kubos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 10 · 20:00T. Hanke32811851F. Kubos3911611113
WJun 28 · 12:55T. Hanke4012116113F. Kubos301051141
WJun 28 · 10:45T. Hanke331111113F. Kubos149410
WJun 7 · 09:14T. Hanke5013911173F. Kubos4511118151
WJun 7 · 06:30T. Hanke52971111143F. Kubos50111179122
T. Hanke10
WOct 10 · 21:03F. Kubos2.3891171242T. Hanke1.531171110113LOct 10 · 18:30P. Kotrbacek2.50111113113T. Hanke1.507131161WOct 10 · 18:00F. Schmidtmayer2.207411101T. Hanke1.6111119123LOct 9 · 17:08T. Hanke1.571331261F. Schmidtmayer2.25111114113LOct 9 · 16:00J. Hanacek2.20911811113T. Hanke1.6111511672WOct 9 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.3811911962T. Hanke1.53711311113WOct 9 · 13:30E. Ondracek3.00512791T. Hanke1.36111011113WSep 26 · 12:41T. Bertho1.909670T. Hanke1.80111193LSep 26 · 11:30T. Hanke1.67513131032V. Herrmann2.1011111112113LSep 26 · 10:30T. Hanke2.2541270L. Stoces1.571114113
F. Kubos10
LOct 10 · 21:03F. Kubos2.3891171242T. Hanke1.531171110113LOct 10 · 19:00F. Schmidtmayer2.001111113F. Kubos1.737720LOct 10 · 17:30P. Kotrbacek2.751110126113F. Kubos1.40912101192WOct 6 · 20:28F. Kubos1.801111123T. Bertho1.9177100LOct 6 · 20:00F. Kubos2.25119771J. Gruber1.5751111113LOct 6 · 18:30P. Maly1.8011119113F. Kubos1.91861171LOct 6 · 18:00T. Bertho2.1011911113F. Kubos1.67411751WOct 5 · 16:29V. Herrmann1.578141111102F. Kubos2.25111674123LOct 5 · 15:30F. Kubos2.38861181O. Horak1.5311118113LOct 5 · 14:30F. Kubos2.008111591M. Soukup1.7311917113
Upcoming Matches
T. Hanke
F. Kubos
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