TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vaclav Rybar vs Vojtech Kocian 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012811711––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:17 and never touched: 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeVaclav Rybar to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Rybar above · Vojtech Kocian below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 59 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Vaclav Rybar at 60.9%
59 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Rybar 4–1 Vojtech Kocian Vojtech Kocian has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1760.9%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.3pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Rybar
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Rybar
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rybar 1353 vs Kocian 1287
Rybar
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rybar 100% vs Kocian 40%
Rybar
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rybar 80% vs Kocian 30%
Rybar
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rybar +7 · Kocian -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Rybar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rybar form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRybar 1.533 / Kocian 2.375
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Rybar)-4.3pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264776
Rybar1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 21 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Kocian2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog24% won 11 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back18% 6 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeRybar4wins
AwayKocian1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderRybar leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRybar80%4 of 5
AwayKociann = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rybar5Kocian0n = 5Rybar took 5 of 5
S2Rybar2Kocian3n = 5Kocian took 3 of 5
S3Rybar2Kocian3n = 5Kocian took 3 of 5
S4Rybar3Kocian1n = 4Rybar took 3 of 4
S5Rybar2Kocian1n = 3Rybar took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricRybarKocianR − KBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match42.237.2+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRybarKocianBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 53 vs 97 / 19058.5%51.1%31 / 53 vs 97 / 190Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RybarRybar 1.53/Kocian 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Rybar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kocian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 4 · 20:00V. Rybar47129411113V. Kocian46101111862
WJul 31 · 12:30V. Rybar501111107113V. Kocian4576121192
LJul 17 · 18:00V. Rybar4011491152V. Kocian46911114113
WJul 6 · 21:00V. Rybar351311113V. Kocian2211470
WJul 6 · 19:30V. Rybar3911611113V. Kocian27311491
V. Rybar10
LOct 9 · 12:30A. Schneeberger1.611111113V. Rybar2.205350WOct 9 · 10:30Z. Luksa2.507530V. Rybar1.501111113WOct 3 · 13:30V. Rybar1.4311118113M. Blaha2.60571161WOct 3 · 12:00P. Banot1.401110711112V. Rybar2.75812118133WOct 3 · 11:00Z. Luksa2.00911591V. Rybar1.7311911113WOct 3 · 10:30V. Rybar1.571111113M. Blaha2.259680WOct 2 · 21:30V. Rybar1.75124114113M. Derco1.95101191182WOct 2 · 20:00V. Rybar1.6791111113Z. Luksa2.10114921LOct 2 · 19:30M. Derco2.0011114123V. Rybar1.738311101WOct 2 · 18:00V. Rybar1.361111113T. Navrat3.008750
V. Kocian10
WOct 9 · 12:00V. Kocian1.801211113Z. Luksa1.9110840LOct 9 · 10:00V. Kocian3.001181211102A. Schneeberger1.361311108123LSep 29 · 13:30M. Levicky2.1011511113V. Kocian1.67911861LSep 29 · 12:30V. Kocian1.7345100R. Adamczyk2.001111123WSep 29 · 11:00V. Kocian1.736111111113P. Banot2.0011813872WSep 29 · 10:00M. Levicky2.1051181262V. Kocian1.671171110113LSep 27 · 21:00V. Kocian1.5796100P. Banot2.251111123WSep 27 · 20:00V. Kocian1.531113168113P. Banot2.38811181132LSep 27 · 19:30R. Adamczyk2.5011912113V. Kocian1.508111011LSep 27 · 18:00V. Kocian1.5711751172M. Levicky2.25711117113
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