TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Banot vs Vaclav Rybar 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11810127111181113
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:58 and never touched: 63.9% is still 63.9%
Graded at full timePetr Banot to win
63.9%
63.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Banot above · Vaclav Rybar below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 102 set 5, 11-13 · our read held Petr Banot at 63.9%
102 points played in total.
H2H Petr Banot 3–2 Vaclav Rybar Vaclav Rybar has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5863.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 7.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Banot
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Banot 1281 vs Rybar 1320
Rybar
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Banot 20% vs Rybar 80%
Rybar
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Banot 40% vs Rybar 60%
Rybar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Banot -2 · Rybar +4
Rybar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Banot) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rybar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBanot 1.40 / Rybar 2.75
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Banot)-7.5pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233882
Banot1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 23 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it82% 22 of 27
Rybar2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 7 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back22% 2 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBanot3wins
AwayRybar2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderBanot leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBanotn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRybar66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Banot2Rybar3n = 5Rybar took 3 of 5
S2Banot4Rybar1n = 5Banot took 4 of 5
S3Banot4Rybar1n = 5Banot took 4 of 5
S4Banot0Rybar3n = 3Rybar took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricBanotRybarB − RBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match37.032.8+4.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBanotRybarBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 126 vs 28 / 5046.8%56%59 / 126 vs 28 / 50Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BanotBanot 1.40/Rybar 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.9%
Banot · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rybar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 17 · 07:30P. Banot331111113V. Rybar198830
WAug 10 · 13:28P. Banot331111113V. Rybar183870
LAug 10 · 10:00P. Banot368111071V. Rybar4011612113
WJul 17 · 19:30P. Banot49711119113V. Rybar4611871192
LJul 14 · 07:00P. Banot34881171V. Rybar4111118113
P. Banot10
LOct 3 · 12:59Z. Luksa2.051111107113P. Banot1.6899121172LOct 3 · 11:30M. Blaha2.6311911113P. Banot1.44611911LOct 3 · 10:00P. Banot1.44871161Z. Luksa2.6311117113WSep 29 · 12:58P. Banot1.731111113R. Adamczyk2.008770LSep 29 · 12:00M. Levicky2.501111113P. Banot1.507980LSep 29 · 11:00V. Kocian1.736111111113P. Banot2.0011813872WSep 29 · 10:30P. Banot2.001111113R. Adamczyk1.739950WSep 27 · 21:00V. Kocian1.5796100P. Banot2.251111123LSep 27 · 20:00V. Kocian1.531113168113P. Banot2.38811181132WSep 27 · 19:00M. Levicky2.208121161P. Banot1.6111145113
V. Rybar10
WOct 3 · 11:00Z. Luksa2.00911591V. Rybar1.7311911113WOct 3 · 10:30V. Rybar1.571111113M. Blaha2.259680WOct 2 · 21:30V. Rybar1.75124114113M. Derco1.95101191182WOct 2 · 20:00V. Rybar1.6791111113Z. Luksa2.10114921LOct 2 · 19:30M. Derco2.0011114123V. Rybar1.738311101WOct 2 · 18:00V. Rybar1.361111113T. Navrat3.008750LSep 17 · 09:00V. Rybar1.5094140M. Levicky2.501111163LSep 17 · 08:30M. Kaspar1.671111113V. Rybar2.102250LSep 17 · 07:30V. Rybar2.008830P. Banot1.731111113WSep 17 · 06:30M. Levicky2.005840V. Rybar1.731111113
Upcoming Matches
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