TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Banot vs Zdenek Luksa 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811711117611––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:59 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timePetr Banot to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Banot above · Zdenek Luksa below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 72 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Petr Banot at 64.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Petr Banot 3–2 Zdenek Luksa Zdenek Luksa has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:5964.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Banot
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Banot 1306 vs Luksa 1265
Banot
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Banot 60% vs Luksa 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Banot 50% vs Luksa 70%
Luksa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Banot +1 · Luksa -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Banot) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Luksa form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBanot 1.444 / Luksa 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Banot)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233365
Banot1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 23 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it82% 22 of 27
Luksa2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog58% won 26 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back39% 11 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBanot3wins
AwayLuksa2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderBanot leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBanot75%3 of 4
AwayLuksan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Banot4Luksa1n = 5Banot took 4 of 5
S2Banot2Luksa3n = 5Luksa took 3 of 5
S3Banot5Luksa0n = 5Banot took 5 of 5
S4Banot1Luksa2n = 3Luksa took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricBanotLuksaB − LBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match38.435.6+2.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBanotLuksaBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 124 vs 67 / 13547.6%49.6%59 / 124 vs 67 / 135Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BanotBanot 1.44/Luksa 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Banot · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Luksa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 9 · 07:30P. Banot331111113Z. Luksa249690
LApr 17 · 08:58P. Banot49111111882Z. Luksa52813911113
WApr 17 · 06:30P. Banot3811511113Z. Luksa34911591
LMar 7 · 14:30P. Banot391271191Z. Luksa4514119113
WMar 7 · 11:30P. Banot331111113Z. Luksa239680
P. Banot10
WSep 29 · 12:58P. Banot1.731111113R. Adamczyk2.008770LSep 29 · 12:00M. Levicky2.501111113P. Banot1.507980LSep 29 · 11:00V. Kocian1.736111111113P. Banot2.0011813872WSep 29 · 10:30P. Banot2.001111113R. Adamczyk1.739950WSep 27 · 21:00V. Kocian1.5796100P. Banot2.251111123LSep 27 · 20:00V. Kocian1.531113168113P. Banot2.38811181132WSep 27 · 19:00M. Levicky2.208121161P. Banot1.6111145113LSep 27 · 18:30P. Banot1.6769100R. Adamczyk2.101111123LSep 25 · 12:59P. Banot1.539870M. Levicky2.381111113WSep 25 · 12:30P. Banot1.44117118163M. Levicky2.63511811142
Z. Luksa10
LOct 2 · 21:00Z. Luksa1.5741116562T. Navrat2.251181411113LOct 2 · 20:00V. Rybar1.6791111113Z. Luksa2.10114921WOct 2 · 19:00T. Navrat1.9111913101Z. Luksa1.80131111123WOct 2 · 18:30Z. Luksa2.1051111113M. Derco1.67118361WSep 30 · 09:28Z. Luksa1.4413118113M. Stolba2.631181181WSep 30 · 08:00Z. Luksa1.30118711113J. Toth3.4091111462WSep 30 · 07:30M. Stolba2.6381161192Z. Luksa1.44114118113WSep 30 · 06:00Z. Luksa1.61118817113A. Kanak2.20811111592LSep 29 · 13:30Z. Luksa1.61111191182A. Kanak2.20134113113WSep 29 · 12:00Z. Luksa2.10381111113I. Palmi1.6711114992
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