TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vojtech Kocian vs Zdenek Luksa 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210118114––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:47 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVojtech Kocian to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Kocian above · Zdenek Luksa below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 56 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Vojtech Kocian at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Kocian 3–3 Zdenek Luksa Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4754.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kocian
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocian 1303 vs Luksa 1246
Kocian
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocian 40% vs Luksa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocian 40% vs Luksa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocian +1 · Luksa -3
Luksa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kocian) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Luksa form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocian 1.80 / Luksa 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kocian)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264686
Kocian1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 40 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it77% 27 of 35
Luksa1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 25 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back35% 10 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKocian3wins
AwayLuksa3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocian100%3 of 3
AwayLuksa100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocian3Luksa3n = 6split evenly
S2Kocian2Luksa4n = 6Luksa took 4 of 6
S3Kocian2Luksa4n = 6Luksa took 4 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away350%
These 6 meetings
MetricKocianLuksaK − LBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match33.032.8+0.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocianLuksaBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 191 vs 71 / 14551.3%49%98 / 191 vs 71 / 145Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KocianKocian 1.80/Luksa 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kocian · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kocian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LMar 21 · 08:30V. Kocian2210930Z. Luksa341211113
WMar 7 · 22:30V. Kocian491110116113Z. Luksa4261251182
WMar 7 · 20:00V. Kocian331111113Z. Luksa144550
LMar 1 · 18:30V. Kocian259970Z. Luksa331111113
WMar 1 · 17:00V. Kocian521111163113Z. Luksa4144181142
LFeb 27 · 11:00V. Kocian174580Z. Luksa331111113
V. Kocian10
WOct 9 · 11:30V. Rybar1.5310870V. Kocian2.381211113LOct 9 · 10:00V. Kocian3.001181211102A. Schneeberger1.361311108123LSep 29 · 13:30M. Levicky2.1011511113V. Kocian1.67911861LSep 29 · 12:30V. Kocian1.7345100R. Adamczyk2.001111123WSep 29 · 11:00V. Kocian1.736111111113P. Banot2.0011813872WSep 29 · 10:00M. Levicky2.1051181262V. Kocian1.671171110113LSep 27 · 21:00V. Kocian1.5796100P. Banot2.251111123WSep 27 · 20:00V. Kocian1.531113168113P. Banot2.38811181132LSep 27 · 19:30R. Adamczyk2.5011912113V. Kocian1.508111011LSep 27 · 18:00V. Kocian1.5711751172M. Levicky2.25711117113
Z. Luksa10
LOct 9 · 13:00V. Rybar1.401211113Z. Luksa2.7510180LOct 9 · 11:00A. Schneeberger1.401111113Z. Luksa2.755490LOct 9 · 10:30Z. Luksa2.507530V. Rybar1.501111113LOct 7 · 13:30D. Kolek1.52611611113Z. Luksa2.3511611742WOct 7 · 12:30Z. Luksa1.40111212133M. Stolba2.7591410111WOct 7 · 11:00Z. Luksa1.57411712113M. Levicky2.25118111072LOct 7 · 10:00D. Kolek1.67311116143Z. Luksa2.10115811122WOct 3 · 12:59Z. Luksa2.051111107113P. Banot1.6899121172LOct 3 · 12:30Z. Luksa1.9181180M. Blaha1.801113113LOct 3 · 11:00Z. Luksa2.00911591V. Rybar1.7311911113
Upcoming Matches
V. Kocian
Z. Luksa
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