TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Stolfa vs Jan Svoboda 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116113911117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:53 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Svoboda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Stolfa above · Jan Svoboda below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 69 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Jan Svoboda at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Stolfa 4–4 Jan Svoboda Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5354.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Svoboda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stolfa 1672 vs Svoboda 1611
Stolfa
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stolfa 100% vs Svoboda 40%
Stolfa
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stolfa 80% vs Svoboda 40%
Stolfa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stolfa +5 · Svoboda +1
Stolfa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Svoboda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStolfa 2.00 / Svoboda 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Svoboda)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264770
Stolfa2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 72 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back34% 28 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 38
Svoboda1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 15 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeStolfa4wins
AwaySvoboda4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStolfa75%3 of 4
AwaySvoboda75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stolfa4Svoboda4n = 8split evenly
S2Stolfa3Svoboda5n = 8Svoboda took 5 of 8
S3Stolfa4Svoboda4n = 8split evenly
S4Stolfa3Svoboda2n = 5Stolfa took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricStolfaSvobodaStolfa − SvobodaBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match37.536.8+0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStolfaSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 433 vs 23 / 4253.1%54.8%230 / 433 vs 23 / 42Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaStolfa 2.00/Svoboda 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stolfa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 18 · 06:00J. Stolfa228770J. Svoboda331111113
LSep 15 · 12:59J. Stolfa2988130J. Svoboda371111153
WSep 15 · 11:00J. Stolfa4311811133J. Svoboda356117111
WSep 15 · 08:00J. Stolfa331111113J. Svoboda228680
WSep 10 · 09:30J. Stolfa51911911113J. Svoboda4311811762
LSep 10 · 08:00J. Stolfa291162101J. Svoboda4281111123
WAug 30 · 07:00J. Stolfa45111013113J. Svoboda323121161
LAug 17 · 10:00J. Stolfa48911116112J. Svoboda50118711133
J. Stolfa10
LOct 9 · 11:30M. Sobisek2.251110116113J. Stolfa1.5741271192WOct 9 · 10:00J. Stolfa2.251151111113J. Pozarsky1.5731181362WOct 5 · 17:30J. Stolfa1.57451111123M. Vedmoch2.25111196102WOct 5 · 16:00J. Stolfa1.831111113M. Vedmoch1.838560WOct 5 · 15:30F. Just1.531111111102J. Stolfa2.38811139123WOct 5 · 14:00J. Stolfa1.3611116123M. Sedlak3.006811101LOct 4 · 17:30V. Cermak1.4081111133J. Stolfa2.751159111WOct 4 · 16:30J. Stolfa1.571111133M. Sobisek2.2558110LOct 4 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.633870V. Cermak1.441111113WOct 4 · 14:00M. Chlebecek2.1012560J. Stolfa1.671411113
J. Svoboda10
WOct 9 · 11:00J. Pozarsky2.38961161J. Svoboda1.5311119113LOct 9 · 10:30J. Svoboda2.1011641142M. Sobisek1.67811113113WOct 9 · 08:58V. Cermak2.0011511372J. Svoboda1.73711811113LOct 9 · 08:00J. Svoboda1.7361171372V. Cermak2.001191111113LOct 9 · 07:30M. Sobisek1.731111113J. Svoboda2.009980WOct 9 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.611111113D. Tuma2.206680LSep 18 · 12:59J. Svoboda1.837119101M. Sobisek1.8311511123WSep 18 · 12:30M. Sobisek1.671176111J. Svoboda2.1051111133LSep 18 · 11:30J. Svoboda2.109990J. Hradecky1.671111113LSep 18 · 10:30M. Vizek1.80811139113J. Svoboda1.91116111162
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