TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Frantisek Just vs Jakub Stolfa 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11811111131191012
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:22 and never touched: 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Just to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFrantisek Just above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 97 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Frantisek Just at 58.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Just 6–2 Jakub Stolfa Jakub Stolfa has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2258.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 7.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Just
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Just
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Just 1510 vs Stolfa 1640
Stolfa
Correct
both rated, 130 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Just 20% vs Stolfa 60%
Stolfa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Just 20% vs Stolfa 60%
Stolfa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Just -4 · Stolfa +1
Just
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Just) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJust 1.533 / Stolfa 2.375
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Just)-7.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13242977
Just1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 49 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it78% 40 of 51
Stolfa2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 72 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back34% 28 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeJust6wins
AwayStolfa2wins
5 of 8 to a deciderJust leads 6–2, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJust100%4 of 4
AwayStolfa50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Just4Stolfa4n = 8split evenly
S2Just5Stolfa3n = 8Just took 5 of 8
S3Just6Stolfa2n = 8Just took 6 of 8
S4Just1Stolfa4n = 5Stolfa took 4 of 5
S5Just4Stolfa1n = 5Just took 4 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home450%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricJustStolfaJ − SBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match41.937.6+4.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJustStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 332 vs 229 / 43249.1%53%163 / 332 vs 229 / 432Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JustJust 1.53/Stolfa 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58%
Just · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stolfa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 15 · 07:30F. Just5810111011163J. Stolfa53126129142
WAug 21 · 16:59F. Just331111113J. Stolfa165380
LAug 21 · 16:30F. Just249870J. Stolfa331111113
WAug 19 · 10:00F. Just50119116133J. Stolfa47811611112
WAug 16 · 19:30F. Just515141110113J. Stolfa49111251292
WAug 8 · 14:30F. Just341112113J. Stolfa2271050
LAug 7 · 12:00F. Just4151111952J. Stolfa42117211113
WDec 13 · 16:30F. Just44115116113J. Stolfa3981171122
F. Just10
LOct 5 · 16:59M. Sedlak1.531111113F. Just2.387570LOct 5 · 16:30M. Sedlak1.571111113F. Just2.256760LOct 5 · 14:30M. Vedmoch2.201111123F. Just1.6188100LSep 25 · 03:30D. Tuma1.551111123F. Just2.3079100LSep 25 · 03:28M. Tuma2.251111123F. Just1.5779100LSep 25 · 01:30F. Just3.0088111162D. Tuma1.36111199113WSep 25 · 00:30M. Vedmoch2.25471151F. Just1.5711117113LSep 24 · 23:30V. Cermak1.5771111113F. Just2.25117731WSep 24 · 22:30F. Just2.00118117113D. Kouble1.7341171192LSep 18 · 02:00R. Krejci1.611111113F. Just2.205690
J. Stolfa10
WOct 5 · 16:00J. Stolfa1.831111113M. Vedmoch1.838560WOct 5 · 14:00J. Stolfa1.3611116123M. Sedlak3.006811101LOct 4 · 17:30V. Cermak1.4081111133J. Stolfa2.751159111WOct 4 · 16:30J. Stolfa1.571111133M. Sobisek2.2558110LOct 4 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.633870V. Cermak1.441111113WOct 4 · 14:00M. Chlebecek2.1012560J. Stolfa1.671411113WOct 4 · 13:30V. Cermak1.4011511982J. Stolfa2.75711911113WOct 4 · 12:30J. Stolfa1.5011149113M. Sobisek2.507121191LOct 4 · 11:00J. Stolfa2.7578140V. Cermak1.401111163WOct 4 · 10:00T. Vinter2.1071191292J. Stolfa1.671161110113
Upcoming Matches
F. Just
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J. Stolfa
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