TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vedmoch vs Frantisek Just 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181181210––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:17 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Just to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Vedmoch above · Frantisek Just below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 60 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Frantisek Just at 57.7%
60 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vedmoch 3–3 Frantisek Just Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1757.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Just
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vedmoch 1517 vs Just 1524
Just
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vedmoch 40% vs Just 20%
Vedmoch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vedmoch 50% vs Just 20%
Vedmoch
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vedmoch -1 · Just -3
Just
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Just) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Just form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVedmoch 2.20 / Just 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Just)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13242913
Vedmoch2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 112 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back19% 25 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back10% 8 of 77
Just1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 11 days ago (Sep 25) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 49 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it78% 40 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeVedmoch3wins
AwayJust3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVedmochn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayJust60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vedmoch1Just5n = 6Just took 5 of 6
S2Vedmoch1Just5n = 6Just took 5 of 6
S3Vedmoch4Just2n = 6Vedmoch took 4 of 6
S4Vedmoch2Just3n = 5Just took 3 of 5
S5Vedmoch3Just0n = 3Vedmoch took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricVedmochJustV − JBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match37.243.3−6.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVedmochJustBasisWin rate · lifetime721 / 1365 vs 170 / 34352.8%49.6%721 / 1365 vs 170 / 343Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JustVedmoch 2.20/Just 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Just · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vedmoch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 25 · 00:30M. Vedmoch27471151F. Just4011117113
WJul 27 · 01:00M. Vedmoch49491411113F. Just49111112962
WJul 17 · 17:28M. Vedmoch517111111113F. Just5011139892
WJul 17 · 15:30M. Vedmoch531281111113F. Just48101191352
LJul 15 · 15:00M. Vedmoch166730F. Just331111113
LMay 20 · 12:30M. Vedmoch27511381F. Just4011711113
M. Vedmoch10
LOct 5 · 16:00J. Stolfa1.831111113M. Vedmoch1.838560WOct 5 · 15:00M. Sedlak2.3813830M. Vedmoch1.531511113LOct 4 · 02:59M. Vedmoch1.401111911132J. Trefny2.75613119153WOct 4 · 02:30J. Trefny2.38811531M. Vedmoch1.5311711113LOct 4 · 01:00J. Plachy2.25891111113M. Vedmoch1.5711116982WOct 3 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.501111113P. Fojt2.509970LOct 3 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.736930J. Prokupek2.001111113WOct 3 · 13:30M. Vedmoch2.2511117113T. Vinter1.57561161WOct 3 · 12:30M. Vedmoch1.571191112113J. Prokupek2.2571171442LOct 3 · 11:00M. Vedmoch2.10111125102T. Vinter1.67761111123
F. Just10
LOct 5 · 15:30F. Just1.531111111102J. Stolfa2.38811139123LSep 25 · 03:30D. Tuma1.551111123F. Just2.3079100LSep 25 · 03:28M. Tuma2.251111123F. Just1.5779100LSep 25 · 01:30F. Just3.0088111162D. Tuma1.36111199113WSep 25 · 00:30M. Vedmoch2.25471151F. Just1.5711117113LSep 24 · 23:30V. Cermak1.5771111113F. Just2.25117731WSep 24 · 22:30F. Just2.00118117113D. Kouble1.7341171192LSep 18 · 02:00R. Krejci1.611111113F. Just2.205690LSep 18 · 00:30F. Just2.63116551V. Cermak1.4471111113LSep 17 · 23:00F. Just2.756980D. Tuma1.401111113
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