TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vedmoch vs Tomas Vinter 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1171162115111012
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:54 and never touched: 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeTomas Vinter to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Tomas Vinter @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingMichal Vedmoch above · Tomas Vinter below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 86 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Tomas Vinter at 58.2%
86 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vedmoch 3–2 Tomas Vinter Tomas Vinter has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:5458.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vinter
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vedmoch 1516 vs Vinter 1583
Vinter
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vedmoch 40% vs Vinter 80%
Vinter
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vedmoch 50% vs Vinter 90%
Vinter
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vedmoch +1 · Vinter +3
Vinter
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Vinter) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vinter form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVedmoch 2.10 / Vinter 1.666
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Vinter)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233217
Vedmoch2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 110 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back19% 25 of 130
Down 0–2, comes back10% 8 of 77
Vinter1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 71 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it82% 59 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVedmoch3wins
AwayVinter2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderVedmoch leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVedmoch100%3 of 3
AwayVintern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vedmoch3Vinter2n = 5Vedmoch took 3 of 5
S2Vedmoch3Vinter2n = 5Vedmoch took 3 of 5
S3Vedmoch2Vinter3n = 5Vinter took 3 of 5
S4Vedmoch0Vinter3n = 3Vinter took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricVedmochVinterVedmoch − VinterBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match38.838.4+0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVedmochVinterBasisWin rate · lifetime717 / 1357 vs 252 / 49552.8%50.9%717 / 1357 vs 252 / 495Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VinterVedmoch 2.10/Vinter 1.67
Miss
What we said
58.2%
Vinter · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Tomas Vinter @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Vinter won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 1 · 20:00M. Vedmoch341211113T. Vinter1710340
LJul 13 · 14:00M. Vedmoch1812420T. Vinter361411113
WMay 30 · 17:30M. Vedmoch51131197113T. Vinter47118111162
WMay 30 · 14:00M. Vedmoch5411101210113T. Vinter46712101252
LMay 13 · 12:00M. Vedmoch3712111041T. Vinter4614912113
M. Vedmoch10
WOct 3 · 10:00J. Stolfa1.6110970M. Vedmoch2.201211113LOct 3 · 03:00M. Vedmoch2.109114111P. Zmuda1.6711611133LOct 3 · 02:00R. Pavelka1.5771112113M. Vedmoch2.251161061WOct 3 · 00:30M. Vedmoch2.631111113P. Zmuda1.449640LOct 2 · 23:00M. Vedmoch3.40751161M. Sobisek1.3011118113LOct 2 · 22:00K. Brozhik1.36111188113M. Vedmoch3.0045111162WOct 2 · 17:30V. Postelt2.05911111232M. Vedmoch1.681113810113LOct 2 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.441011671V. Postelt2.6312511113WOct 2 · 15:30T. Dousa2.251011881M. Vedmoch1.5712411113WOct 2 · 14:00M. Vedmoch1.67631111143J. Prokupek2.10111196122
T. Vinter10
WOct 3 · 10:30T. Vinter1.401411113J. Prokupek2.7512860WSep 21 · 21:28D. Tuma2.001177101T. Vinter1.7391111123WSep 21 · 20:30T. Janata1.808133111T. Vinter1.91111111133LSep 21 · 19:30T. Vinter1.8381111111D. Tuma1.8311137133WSep 21 · 18:30J. Stolfa1.5711811862T. Vinter2.25411811113WSep 13 · 13:30T. Vinter1.77861111123J. Prokupek1.93111179102WSep 13 · 12:00T. Vinter1.361111113F. Jungman3.005790WSep 13 · 11:30K. Darin3.5010960T. Vinter1.281211113WSep 13 · 10:00T. Vinter1.53111211113J. Prokupek2.38314951WSep 10 · 13:30T. Vinter1.601111113V. Postelt2.206870
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