TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Stolfa vs Vladimir Cermak 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311811711––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:48 and never touched: 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Stolfa above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 51 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Vladimir Cermak at 67.9%
51 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Stolfa 5–19 Vladimir Cermak Jakub Stolfa has won 5 of their 24 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Stolfa beat Cermak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:4867.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cermak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-19 in 24
Cermak
Correct
gap of 14 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stolfa 1644 vs Cermak 1641
Stolfa
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stolfa 80% vs Cermak 60%
Stolfa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stolfa 60% vs Cermak 80%
Cermak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stolfa +3 · Cermak +1
Stolfa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Cermak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStolfa 2.625 / Cermak 1.444
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Cermak)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13237735
Stolfa2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 71 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back34% 27 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Cermak1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite60% won 159 of 264
Up 2–0, closes it92% 80 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it79% 126 of 160
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStolfa2wins
AwayCermak8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCermak leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStolfan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCermak87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stolfa2Cermak8n = 10Cermak took 8 of 10
S2Stolfa4Cermak6n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S3Stolfa2Cermak8n = 10Cermak took 8 of 10
S4Stolfa2Cermak4n = 6Cermak took 4 of 6
S5Stolfa2Cermak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricStolfaCermakS − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.740.2−8.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStolfaCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 433 vs 565 / 110253.1%51.3%230 / 433 vs 565 / 1102Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CermakStolfa 2.63/Cermak 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 13:30J. Stolfa49711911113V. Cermak4411511982
LOct 4 · 11:00J. Stolfa2978140V. Cermak381111163
LOct 2 · 13:30J. Stolfa166280V. Cermak331111113
LOct 2 · 12:00J. Stolfa198560V. Cermak331111113
LSep 29 · 11:00J. Stolfa3611115452V. Cermak49791111113
LSep 29 · 06:00J. Stolfa348115101V. Cermak4111711123
LSep 15 · 10:30J. Stolfa4089111112V. Cermak44111156113
WSep 15 · 09:00J. Stolfa521110119113V. Cermak4371271162
LSep 15 · 06:00J. Stolfa135530V. Cermak331111113
LSep 14 · 09:28J. Stolfa29213681V. Cermak44111111113
J. Stolfa10
WOct 4 · 14:00M. Chlebecek2.1012560J. Stolfa1.671411113WOct 4 · 13:30V. Cermak1.4011511982J. Stolfa2.75711911113WOct 4 · 12:30J. Stolfa1.5011149113M. Sobisek2.507121191LOct 4 · 11:00J. Stolfa2.7578140V. Cermak1.401111163WOct 4 · 10:00T. Vinter2.1071191292J. Stolfa1.671161110113LOct 3 · 13:00J. Stolfa1.5391270J. Prokupek2.381114113WOct 3 · 12:00J. Stolfa1.671091111113T. Vinter2.1012116582WOct 3 · 11:30J. Prokupek2.3812830J. Stolfa1.531411113LOct 3 · 10:00J. Stolfa1.6110970M. Vedmoch2.201211113LOct 2 · 13:30V. Cermak1.441111113J. Stolfa2.636280
V. Cermak10
WOct 4 · 14:30V. Cermak2.25111196113M. Sobisek1.5789111172LOct 4 · 13:30V. Cermak1.4011511982J. Stolfa2.75711911113WOct 4 · 12:00T. Vinter1.9181171192V. Cermak1.80116114113WOct 4 · 11:00J. Stolfa2.7578140V. Cermak1.401111163LOct 4 · 10:30V. Cermak2.2086150M. Sobisek1.611111173WOct 2 · 13:30V. Cermak1.441111113J. Stolfa2.636280WOct 2 · 12:00J. Stolfa2.258560V. Cermak1.571111113WOct 2 · 11:00R. Pavelka2.004970V. Cermak1.731111113WOct 2 · 10:30V. Cermak1.4411911113J. Plachy2.63411781WOct 2 · 09:30V. Cermak2.001114113P. Zmuda1.7361220
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