TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Vinter vs Vladimir Cermak 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811116711114911
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:58 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Vinter to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Vinter above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 89 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Tomas Vinter at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Vinter 15–18 Vladimir Cermak Tomas Vinter has won 15 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5854.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cermak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-18 in 33
Cermak
Correct
gap of 3 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vinter 1599 vs Cermak 1655
Cermak
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vinter 60% vs Cermak 80%
Cermak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vinter 60% vs Cermak 90%
Cermak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vinter +1 · Cermak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vinter) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cermak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVinter 1.909 / Cermak 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vinter)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13237855
Vinter1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 44 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Cermak1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 159 of 264
Up 2–0, closes it92% 80 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it79% 126 of 160
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVinter5wins
AwayCermak5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVinter66.7%2 of 3
AwayCermak57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vinter3Cermak7n = 10Cermak took 7 of 10
S2Vinter3Cermak7n = 10Cermak took 7 of 10
S3Vinter7Cermak3n = 10Vinter took 7 of 10
S4Vinter6Cermak3n = 9Vinter took 6 of 9
S5Vinter2Cermak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVinterCermakV − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.339.2+1.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVinterCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 504 vs 564 / 109951%51.3%257 / 504 vs 564 / 1099Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VinterVinter 1.91/Cermak 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vinter · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 10:30T. Vinter3931114113V. Cermak391191271
LAug 21 · 08:00T. Vinter205690V. Cermak331111113
WJul 19 · 20:00T. Vinter541281112113V. Cermak48141181052
WJul 16 · 06:00T. Vinter3911611113V. Cermak22511331
WJul 12 · 12:30T. Vinter3611311113V. Cermak32811851
LJun 21 · 11:00T. Vinter411491171V. Cermak4616118113
LJun 15 · 13:30T. Vinter47111375112V. Cermak526111111133
LJun 15 · 12:30T. Vinter40106111122V. Cermak48121186113
WJun 12 · 06:30T. Vinter539111111113V. Cermak3411133432
LJun 2 · 20:58T. Vinter34811781V. Cermak3811511113
T. Vinter10
WOct 4 · 11:30M. Sobisek1.8399120T. Vinter1.831111143LOct 4 · 10:00T. Vinter2.1071191292J. Stolfa1.671161110113LOct 3 · 21:30T. Vinter1.35117481P. Fojt2.9021111113WOct 3 · 20:00T. Vinter1.571212113J. Trefny2.25101040WOct 3 · 19:30P. Fojt2.637630T. Vinter1.441111113WOct 3 · 18:00T. Vinter2.2051111143M. Sedlak1.611169121LOct 3 · 13:30M. Vedmoch2.2511117113T. Vinter1.57561161LOct 3 · 12:00J. Stolfa1.671091111113T. Vinter2.1012116582WOct 3 · 11:00M. Vedmoch2.10111125102T. Vinter1.67761111123WOct 3 · 10:30T. Vinter1.401411113J. Prokupek2.7512860
V. Cermak10
WOct 4 · 11:00J. Stolfa2.7578140V. Cermak1.401111163LOct 4 · 10:30V. Cermak2.2086150M. Sobisek1.611111173WOct 2 · 13:30V. Cermak1.441111113J. Stolfa2.636280WOct 2 · 12:00J. Stolfa2.258560V. Cermak1.571111113WOct 2 · 11:00R. Pavelka2.004970V. Cermak1.731111113WOct 2 · 10:30V. Cermak1.4411911113J. Plachy2.63411781WOct 2 · 09:30V. Cermak2.001114113P. Zmuda1.7361220WOct 2 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.6761101122V. Cermak2.10112114113WOct 2 · 07:00J. Prokupek2.255711121V. Cermak1.5711116143WOct 2 · 06:30V. Cermak1.44111111113J. Plachy2.63137791
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