TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Vinter vs Marek Sedlak 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111161191412––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:55 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Sedlak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Vinter above · Marek Sedlak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 79 set 4, 14-12 · our read held Marek Sedlak at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Vinter 2–2 Marek Sedlak Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5554.0%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 7.9pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sedlak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vinter 1568 vs Sedlak 1496
Vinter
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vinter 60% vs Sedlak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vinter 70% vs Sedlak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vinter -2 · Sedlak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sedlak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vinter form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVinter 2.20 / Sedlak 1.615
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vinter)+0.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13233205
Vinter2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 44 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Sedlak1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite40% won 10 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeVinter2wins
AwaySedlak2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vinter2Sedlak2n = 4split evenly
S2Vinter3Sedlak1n = 4Vinter took 3 of 4
S3Vinter0Sedlak4n = 4Sedlak took 4 of 4
S4Vinter1Sedlak2n = 3Sedlak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricVinterSedlakV − SBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match36.838.8−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVinterSedlakBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 498 vs 59 / 12650.8%46.8%253 / 498 vs 59 / 126Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SedlakVinter 2.20/Sedlak 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sedlak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vinter won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 3 · 21:00T. Vinter2810990M. Sedlak341211113
LSep 3 · 18:00T. Vinter301013251M. Sedlak45121111113
WAug 20 · 17:00T. Vinter51111199113M. Sedlak4037111182
WAug 20 · 15:00T. Vinter3811124113M. Sedlak366101191
T. Vinter10
WOct 3 · 19:30P. Fojt2.637630T. Vinter1.441111113LOct 3 · 13:30M. Vedmoch2.2511117113T. Vinter1.57561161LOct 3 · 12:00J. Stolfa1.671091111113T. Vinter2.1012116582WOct 3 · 11:00M. Vedmoch2.10111125102T. Vinter1.67761111123WOct 3 · 10:30T. Vinter1.401411113J. Prokupek2.7512860WSep 21 · 21:28D. Tuma2.001177101T. Vinter1.7391111123WSep 21 · 20:30T. Janata1.808133111T. Vinter1.91111111133LSep 21 · 19:30T. Vinter1.8381111111D. Tuma1.8311137133WSep 21 · 18:30J. Stolfa1.5711811862T. Vinter2.25411811113WSep 13 · 13:30T. Vinter1.77861111123J. Prokupek1.93111179102
M. Sedlak10
LOct 3 · 19:00M. Sedlak1.61127671J. Trefny2.20101111113WOct 2 · 21:00M. Sedlak1.50661111113J. Dedek2.5011117782LOct 2 · 20:00T. Dousa4.331111113M. Sedlak1.208940LOct 2 · 19:00J. Dedek2.63111178123M. Sedlak1.44641111102WOct 2 · 18:30M. Sedlak1.53911911113K. Darin2.3811311892WSep 14 · 20:58M. Sedlak1.251111113T. Dousa3.757480LSep 14 · 20:30M. Sedlak1.80581191L. Krticka1.9111114113WSep 14 · 19:00M. Sedlak1.20891111113T. Dousa4.3311118982LSep 14 · 18:00T. Janata1.8311113113M. Sedlak1.83871161WSep 10 · 16:59T. Dousa3.508990M. Sedlak1.281111113
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