TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Vinter vs Pavel Fojt 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
112711411811––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:11 and never touched: 71.0% is still 71.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Vinter to win
71.0%
71.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Vinter above · Pavel Fojt below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 65 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Tomas Vinter at 71.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Vinter 2–3 Pavel Fojt Tomas Vinter has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Vinter beat Fojt 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:1171.0%Our read74.1%to break even at 1.35
short by 3.1pp74.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.35 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.35 (68%)
Vinter
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vinter 1591 vs Fojt 1588
Vinter
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vinter 60% vs Fojt 80%
Fojt
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vinter 70% vs Fojt 90%
Fojt
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vinter +3 · Fojt +1
Vinter
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Vinter) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fojt form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (34%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVinter 1.35 / Fojt 2.90
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Vinter)-3.1pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13240685
Vinter1.35
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 71 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it82% 59 of 72
Fojt2.90
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 58 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVinter2wins
AwayFojt3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderFojt leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVinter50%2 of 4
AwayFojtn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vinter4Fojt1n = 5Vinter took 4 of 5
S2Vinter2Fojt3n = 5Fojt took 3 of 5
S3Vinter3Fojt2n = 5Vinter took 3 of 5
S4Vinter1Fojt2n = 3Fojt took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricVinterFojtV − FBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match34.433.0+1.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVinterFojtBasisWin rate · lifetime256 / 502 vs 343 / 69551%49.4%256 / 502 vs 343 / 695Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VinterVinter 1.35/Fojt 2.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71%
Vinter · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fojt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 3 · 21:30T. Vinter30117481P. Fojt3521111113
WOct 3 · 19:30T. Vinter331111113P. Fojt167630
WJul 1 · 21:28T. Vinter331111113P. Fojt219480
LJul 1 · 19:30T. Vinter26561141P. Fojt3911116113
LJun 23 · 19:00T. Vinter50116111392P. Fojt548111311113
T. Vinter10
WOct 3 · 20:00T. Vinter1.571212113J. Trefny2.25101040WOct 3 · 19:30P. Fojt2.637630T. Vinter1.441111113WOct 3 · 18:00T. Vinter2.2051111143M. Sedlak1.611169121LOct 3 · 13:30M. Vedmoch2.2511117113T. Vinter1.57561161LOct 3 · 12:00J. Stolfa1.671091111113T. Vinter2.1012116582WOct 3 · 11:00M. Vedmoch2.10111125102T. Vinter1.67761111123WOct 3 · 10:30T. Vinter1.401411113J. Prokupek2.7512860WSep 21 · 21:28D. Tuma2.001177101T. Vinter1.7391111123WSep 21 · 20:30T. Janata1.808133111T. Vinter1.91111111133LSep 21 · 19:30T. Vinter1.8381111111D. Tuma1.8311137133
P. Fojt10
WOct 3 · 20:30M. Sedlak1.57951171P. Fojt2.2511116113LOct 3 · 19:30P. Fojt2.637630T. Vinter1.441111113WOct 3 · 18:30J. Trefny2.2591090P. Fojt1.571112113WSep 23 · 21:30P. Fojt1.431111113Y. Holovatiuk2.655450WSep 23 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk2.6311911672P. Fojt1.44811711113WSep 23 · 19:30P. Fojt1.831211113P. Klusacek1.8310730WSep 23 · 18:30T. Dousa1.739580P. Fojt2.001111113WSep 20 · 03:28P. Fojt1.67311311113A. Mikuska2.1011711982WSep 20 · 02:00Y. Holovatiuk2.50111161192P. Fojt1.50981113113WSep 20 · 00:30P. Fojt1.7331111113A. Mikuska2.00119641
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