TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Trefny vs Pavel Fojt 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111012911––––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:25 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timePavel Fojt to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Pavel Fojt below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 62 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Pavel Fojt at 60.1%
62 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 1–5 Pavel Fojt Jan Trefny has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2560.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Fojt
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Fojt
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trefny 1557 vs Fojt 1567
Fojt
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trefny 20% vs Fojt 100%
Fojt
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trefny 50% vs Fojt 90%
Fojt
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Trefny -4 · Fojt +9
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Fojt) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fojt form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 2.25 / Fojt 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Fojt)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233516
Trefny2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 29)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 34 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Fojt1.57
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 10 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
Won last 9
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 81 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it95% 40 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it84% 53 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeTrefny1wins
AwayFojt5wins
Fojt leads 5–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrefnyn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayFojt100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trefny1Fojt5n = 6Fojt took 5 of 6
S2Trefny3Fojt3n = 6split evenly
S3Trefny1Fojt5n = 6Fojt took 5 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away350%
These 6 meetings
MetricTrefnyFojtT − FBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match29.834.8−5.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyFojtBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 146 vs 347 / 70850.7%49%74 / 146 vs 347 / 708Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FojtTrefny 2.25/Fojt 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Fojt · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fojt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 23 · 03:00J. Trefny2010640P. Fojt341211113
LAug 23 · 01:00J. Trefny3091290P. Fojt361114113
LJul 26 · 00:00J. Trefny35811881P. Fojt3911611113
LJul 25 · 18:30J. Trefny217770P. Fojt331111113
WJul 20 · 21:30J. Trefny371214113P. Fojt28101260
LJul 20 · 18:00J. Trefny36811981P. Fojt3911611113
J. Trefny10
WOct 3 · 19:00M. Sedlak1.61127671J. Trefny2.20101111113LSep 29 · 13:00J. Stolfa1.911111113J. Trefny1.806780LSep 29 · 12:30J. Stolfa2.10611811113J. Trefny1.6711611752LSep 29 · 11:30J. Trefny2.101011851M. Sobisek1.6712911113LSep 29 · 10:30V. Cermak1.401111113J. Trefny2.758590WSep 29 · 09:30J. Trefny1.8011114113J. Stolfa1.90691181WSep 29 · 08:30V. Cermak1.258119101J. Trefny3.7511811123WSep 29 · 07:30J. Trefny2.00101111123J. Stolfa1.731266101WSep 29 · 06:30M. Sobisek1.6171070J. Trefny2.201112113WSep 28 · 21:00J. Stolfa1.446610J. Trefny2.631111113
P. Fojt10
LOct 3 · 19:30P. Fojt2.637630T. Vinter1.441111113WSep 23 · 21:30P. Fojt1.431111113Y. Holovatiuk2.655450WSep 23 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk2.6311911672P. Fojt1.44811711113WSep 23 · 19:30P. Fojt1.831211113P. Klusacek1.8310730WSep 23 · 18:30T. Dousa1.739580P. Fojt2.001111113WSep 20 · 03:28P. Fojt1.67311311113A. Mikuska2.1011711982WSep 20 · 02:00Y. Holovatiuk2.50111161192P. Fojt1.50981113113WSep 20 · 00:30P. Fojt1.7331111113A. Mikuska2.00119641WSep 19 · 23:00P. Fojt1.40111186133K. Darin2.75871111112WSep 19 · 22:00J. Dedek1.369880P. Fojt3.001111113
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