TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Stolfa vs Jan Trefny 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611116811117115
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:26 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeJan Trefny to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Stolfa above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 87 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Jan Trefny at 57.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Stolfa 2–5 Jan Trefny Jakub Stolfa has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 3h before this match
Trefny beat Stolfa 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:26What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Trefny
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Trefny
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stolfa 1595 vs Trefny 1579
Stolfa
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stolfa 20% vs Trefny 60%
Trefny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stolfa 30% vs Trefny 50%
Trefny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stolfa -3 · Trefny -2
Stolfa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Trefny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStolfa 2.10 / Trefny 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Trefny)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13216019
Stolfa2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 67 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back35% 25 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Trefny1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 33 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeStolfa2wins
AwayTrefny5wins
2 of 7 to a deciderTrefny leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStolfa50%2 of 4
AwayTrefny100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stolfa4Trefny3n = 7Stolfa took 4 of 7
S2Stolfa3Trefny4n = 7Trefny took 4 of 7
S3Stolfa3Trefny4n = 7Trefny took 4 of 7
S4Stolfa0Trefny5n = 5Trefny took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricStolfaTrefnyS − TBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match36.037.6−1.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStolfaTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 414 vs 74 / 14451.9%51.4%215 / 414 vs 74 / 144Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyStolfa 2.10/Trefny 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stolfa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 29 · 09:30J. Stolfa34691181J. Trefny3711114113
LSep 29 · 07:30J. Stolfa341266101J. Trefny44101111123
LSep 28 · 21:00J. Stolfa136610J. Trefny331111113
WSep 28 · 19:30J. Stolfa49111197113J. Trefny4278111152
WSep 28 · 12:00J. Stolfa351112123J. Trefny23310100
LAug 18 · 09:30J. Stolfa399119101J. Trefny3811411123
LAug 18 · 06:00J. Stolfa48117111092J. Trefny46311912113
J. Stolfa10
WSep 29 · 13:00J. Stolfa1.911111113J. Trefny1.806780LSep 29 · 11:00J. Stolfa2.2511115452V. Cermak1.57791111113LSep 29 · 10:00M. Sobisek2.63111195143J. Stolfa1.44671111122LSep 29 · 09:30J. Trefny1.8011114113J. Stolfa1.90691181WSep 29 · 08:00J. Stolfa1.531211113M. Sobisek2.3810770LSep 29 · 07:30J. Trefny2.00101111123J. Stolfa1.731266101LSep 29 · 06:00J. Stolfa2.258115101V. Cermak1.5711711123LSep 28 · 21:00J. Stolfa1.446610J. Trefny2.631111113LSep 28 · 20:00J. Stolfa1.739970T. Janata2.001111113WSep 28 · 19:30J. Trefny2.6378111152J. Stolfa1.44111197113
J. Trefny10
LSep 29 · 13:00J. Stolfa1.911111113J. Trefny1.806780LSep 29 · 11:30J. Trefny2.101011851M. Sobisek1.6712911113LSep 29 · 10:30V. Cermak1.401111113J. Trefny2.758590WSep 29 · 09:30J. Trefny1.8011114113J. Stolfa1.90691181WSep 29 · 08:30V. Cermak1.258119101J. Trefny3.7511811123WSep 29 · 07:30J. Trefny2.00101111123J. Stolfa1.731266101WSep 29 · 06:30M. Sobisek1.6171070J. Trefny2.201112113WSep 28 · 21:00J. Stolfa1.446610J. Trefny2.631111113LSep 28 · 20:30R. Pavelka1.91101111113J. Trefny1.80127981LSep 28 · 19:30J. Trefny2.6378111152J. Stolfa1.44111197113
Upcoming Matches
J. Stolfa
J. Trefny
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