TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vladimir Cermak vs Jakub Stolfa 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117511119911811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:15 and never touched: 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladimir Cermak above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Vladimir Cermak at 67.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Cermak 19–4 Jakub Stolfa Jakub Stolfa has won 4 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Cermak beat Stolfa 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:1567.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Cermak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-4 in 23
Cermak
Wrong
gap of 15 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cermak 1664 vs Stolfa 1621
Cermak
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cermak 80% vs Stolfa 60%
Cermak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cermak 90% vs Stolfa 50%
Cermak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cermak +2 · Stolfa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Cermak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCermak 1.40 / Stolfa 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 33%
Edge (Cermak)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243603
Cermak1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite60% won 159 of 264
Up 2–0, closes it92% 80 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it79% 126 of 160
Stolfa2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 71 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back34% 27 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCermak9wins
AwayStolfa1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCermak leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCermak100%7 of 7
AwayStolfa33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cermak7Stolfa3n = 10Cermak took 7 of 10
S2Cermak7Stolfa3n = 10Cermak took 7 of 10
S3Cermak8Stolfa2n = 10Cermak took 8 of 10
S4Cermak4Stolfa2n = 6Cermak took 4 of 6
S5Cermak3Stolfa1n = 4Cermak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCermakStolfaC − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.131.6+9.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCermakStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime565 / 1100 vs 228 / 43151.4%52.9%565 / 1100 vs 228 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CermakCermak 1.40/Stolfa 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.5%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stolfa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 11:00V. Cermak381111163J. Stolfa2978140
WOct 2 · 13:30V. Cermak331111113J. Stolfa166280
WOct 2 · 12:00V. Cermak331111113J. Stolfa198560
WSep 29 · 11:00V. Cermak49791111113J. Stolfa3611115452
WSep 29 · 06:00V. Cermak4111711123J. Stolfa348115101
WSep 15 · 10:30V. Cermak44111156113J. Stolfa4089111112
LSep 15 · 09:00V. Cermak4371271162J. Stolfa521110119113
WSep 15 · 06:00V. Cermak331111113J. Stolfa135530
WSep 14 · 09:28V. Cermak44111111113J. Stolfa29213681
WSep 14 · 07:30V. Cermak531111119113J. Stolfa4813991162
V. Cermak10
WOct 4 · 12:00T. Vinter1.9181171192V. Cermak1.80116114113WOct 4 · 11:00J. Stolfa2.7578140V. Cermak1.401111163LOct 4 · 10:30V. Cermak2.2086150M. Sobisek1.611111173WOct 2 · 13:30V. Cermak1.441111113J. Stolfa2.636280WOct 2 · 12:00J. Stolfa2.258560V. Cermak1.571111113WOct 2 · 11:00R. Pavelka2.004970V. Cermak1.731111113WOct 2 · 10:30V. Cermak1.4411911113J. Plachy2.63411781WOct 2 · 09:30V. Cermak2.001114113P. Zmuda1.7361220WOct 2 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.6761101122V. Cermak2.10112114113WOct 2 · 07:00J. Prokupek2.255711121V. Cermak1.5711116143
J. Stolfa10
WOct 4 · 12:30J. Stolfa1.5011149113M. Sobisek2.507121191LOct 4 · 11:00J. Stolfa2.7578140V. Cermak1.401111163WOct 4 · 10:00T. Vinter2.1071191292J. Stolfa1.671161110113LOct 3 · 13:00J. Stolfa1.5391270J. Prokupek2.381114113WOct 3 · 12:00J. Stolfa1.671091111113T. Vinter2.1012116582WOct 3 · 11:30J. Prokupek2.3812830J. Stolfa1.531411113LOct 3 · 10:00J. Stolfa1.6110970M. Vedmoch2.201211113LOct 2 · 13:30V. Cermak1.441111113J. Stolfa2.636280LOct 2 · 12:00J. Stolfa2.258560V. Cermak1.571111113WOct 2 · 11:30J. Plachy2.75812111062J. Stolfa1.401110812113
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