TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Sobisek vs Jakub Stolfa 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1141012117611119
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:17 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Stolfa to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Sobisek above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 92 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Jakub Stolfa at 65.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sobisek 7–18 Jakub Stolfa Martin Sobisek has won 7 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1765.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
clears by 2.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Stolfa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-18 in 25
Stolfa
Wrong
gap of 11 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobisek 1624 vs Stolfa 1672
Stolfa
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobisek 80% vs Stolfa 100%
Stolfa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobisek 40% vs Stolfa 80%
Stolfa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobisek +2 · Stolfa +5
Stolfa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Stolfa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobisek 2.25 / Stolfa 1.571
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Stolfa)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13264706
Sobisek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 118 of 304
Down 0–1, comes back24% 41 of 172
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 108
Stolfa1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 105 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it100% 46 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it82% 73 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobisek4wins
AwayStolfa6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStolfa leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobisek100%4 of 4
AwayStolfa100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobisek4Stolfa6n = 10Stolfa took 6 of 10
S2Sobisek2Stolfa8n = 10Stolfa took 8 of 10
S3Sobisek3Stolfa7n = 10Stolfa took 7 of 10
S4Sobisek1Stolfa4n = 5Stolfa took 4 of 5
S5Sobisek3Stolfa0n = 3Sobisek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobisekStolfaSobisek − StolfaBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.338.4−5.1per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobisekStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime563 / 1194 vs 230 / 43347.2%53.1%563 / 1194 vs 230 / 433Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StolfaSobisek 2.25/Stolfa 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Stolfa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sobisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 16:30M. Sobisek2458110J. Stolfa351111133
LOct 4 · 12:30M. Sobisek397121191J. Stolfa4511149113
LOct 1 · 20:00M. Sobisek1610420J. Stolfa341211113
WSep 29 · 10:00M. Sobisek50111195143J. Stolfa47671111122
LSep 29 · 08:00M. Sobisek2410770J. Stolfa341211113
LSep 24 · 08:00M. Sobisek196760J. Stolfa331111113
WSep 18 · 08:30M. Sobisek40113114113J. Stolfa4391161162
WSep 10 · 19:30M. Sobisek3811115113J. Stolfa33991141
LSep 8 · 16:30M. Sobisek31812110J. Stolfa381114133
WSep 6 · 20:30M. Sobisek521110119113J. Stolfa4251291152
M. Sobisek10
WOct 9 · 10:30J. Svoboda2.1011641142M. Sobisek1.67811113113WOct 9 · 09:30M. Sobisek2.0011117113D. Tuma1.73381151LOct 9 · 08:30D. Tuma1.911214113M. Sobisek1.80101290WOct 9 · 07:30M. Sobisek1.731111113J. Svoboda2.009980WOct 9 · 06:30V. Cermak2.1041311392M. Sobisek1.671111511113LOct 4 · 16:58M. Chlebecek1.6711117113M. Sobisek2.10531151LOct 4 · 16:30J. Stolfa1.571111133M. Sobisek2.2558110LOct 4 · 15:30M. Sobisek2.00117791M. Chlebecek1.7351111113LOct 4 · 14:30V. Cermak2.25111196113M. Sobisek1.5789111172LOct 4 · 13:06T. Vinter1.8311413153M. Sobisek1.8331111131
J. Stolfa10
WOct 9 · 12:00J. Stolfa2.0011119113J. Svoboda1.73631171WOct 9 · 10:00J. Stolfa2.251151111113J. Pozarsky1.5731181362WOct 5 · 17:30J. Stolfa1.57451111123M. Vedmoch2.25111196102WOct 5 · 16:00J. Stolfa1.831111113M. Vedmoch1.838560WOct 5 · 15:30F. Just1.531111111102J. Stolfa2.38811139123WOct 5 · 14:00J. Stolfa1.3611116123M. Sedlak3.006811101LOct 4 · 17:30V. Cermak1.4081111133J. Stolfa2.751159111WOct 4 · 16:30J. Stolfa1.571111133M. Sobisek2.2558110LOct 4 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.633870V. Cermak1.441111113WOct 4 · 14:00M. Chlebecek2.1012560J. Stolfa1.671411113
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J. Stolfa
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