TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vladimir Cermak vs Martin Sobisek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111311115311911
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:26 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Sobisek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Cermak above · Martin Sobisek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 89 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Martin Sobisek at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Cermak 26–41 Martin Sobisek Vladimir Cermak has won 26 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2654.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sobisek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-41 in 67
Sobisek
Correct
gap of 15 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cermak 1651 vs Sobisek 1618
Cermak
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cermak 80% vs Sobisek 0%
Cermak
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cermak 60% vs Sobisek 30%
Cermak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cermak -1 · Sobisek -7
Sobisek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sobisek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobisek form (0%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCermak 2.10 / Sobisek 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sobisek)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13263698
Cermak2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 08)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 85 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back23% 27 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 69
Sobisek1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 04)
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 105 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it97% 61 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it80% 82 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCermak4wins
AwaySobisek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSobisek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCermak75%3 of 4
AwaySobisek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cermak4Sobisek6n = 10Sobisek took 6 of 10
S2Cermak4Sobisek6n = 10Sobisek took 6 of 10
S3Cermak5Sobisek5n = 10split evenly
S4Cermak4Sobisek3n = 7Cermak took 4 of 7
S5Cermak1Sobisek3n = 4Sobisek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricCermakSobisekC − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.538.7−2.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCermakSobisekBasisWin rate · lifetime570 / 1108 vs 561 / 119151.4%47.1%570 / 1108 vs 561 / 1191Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SobisekCermak 2.10/Sobisek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sobisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sobisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 06:30V. Cermak4041311392M. Sobisek491111511113
WOct 4 · 14:30V. Cermak48111196113M. Sobisek4689111172
LOct 4 · 10:30V. Cermak2986150M. Sobisek391111173
LSep 29 · 13:30V. Cermak4611811792M. Sobisek44611511113
LSep 29 · 12:00V. Cermak137510M. Sobisek331111113
WSep 29 · 09:00V. Cermak43111011113M. Sobisek36612991
LSep 29 · 07:00V. Cermak2021170M. Sobisek351113113
WSep 24 · 12:58V. Cermak4211119113M. Sobisek26491121
WSep 24 · 10:30V. Cermak45101113113M. Sobisek341271141
LSep 23 · 15:00V. Cermak3971111192M. Sobisek45111175113
V. Cermak10
LOct 9 · 07:00D. Tuma1.91913139113V. Cermak1.801111111192LOct 8 · 03:30V. Cermak2.50611671M. Vizek1.5011611113WOct 8 · 02:30M. Vizek1.441011541V. Cermak2.6312411113WOct 8 · 01:00K. Brozhik1.617770V. Cermak2.201111113WOct 7 · 23:30V. Cermak2.25115812113A. Hlawatschke1.57811111082WOct 7 · 22:00V. Cermak1.44411811113F. Just2.6311811832LOct 7 · 17:00V. Cermak2.109101161J. Pozarsky1.6711129113LOct 7 · 16:30A. Brazda2.25811129113V. Cermak1.57112101182LOct 7 · 15:30V. Cermak2.637680M. Pikous1.441111113WOct 7 · 14:30J. Pozarsky1.57911681V. Cermak2.2511611113
M. Sobisek10
WOct 9 · 07:30M. Sobisek1.731111113J. Svoboda2.009980LOct 4 · 16:58M. Chlebecek1.6711117113M. Sobisek2.10531151LOct 4 · 16:30J. Stolfa1.571111133M. Sobisek2.2558110LOct 4 · 15:30M. Sobisek2.00117791M. Chlebecek1.7351111113LOct 4 · 14:30V. Cermak2.25111196113M. Sobisek1.5789111172LOct 4 · 13:06T. Vinter1.8311413153M. Sobisek1.8331111131LOct 4 · 12:30J. Stolfa1.5011149113M. Sobisek2.507121191LOct 4 · 11:30M. Sobisek1.8399120T. Vinter1.831111143WOct 4 · 10:30V. Cermak2.2086150M. Sobisek1.611111173WOct 3 · 03:30M. Sobisek1.4571111113R. Pavelka2.55117461
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