TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vladimir Cermak vs Frantisek Just 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411118811118113
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:45 and never touched: 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Cermak above · Frantisek Just below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 86 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Vladimir Cermak at 67.7%
86 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Cermak 22–14 Frantisek Just Frantisek Just has won 14 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:4567.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cermak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-14 in 36
Cermak
Correct
gap of 8 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cermak 1677 vs Just 1472
Cermak
Correct
both rated, 205 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cermak 40% vs Just 0%
Cermak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cermak 60% vs Just 20%
Cermak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cermak -3 · Just -7
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Cermak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Just form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCermak 1.444 / Just 2.625
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Cermak)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13253681
Cermak1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 159 of 261
Up 2–0, closes it92% 82 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it80% 128 of 161
Just2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 05)
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 23 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCermak6wins
AwayJust4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCermak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCermak80%4 of 5
AwayJust60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cermak5Just5n = 10split evenly
S2Cermak3Just7n = 10Just took 7 of 10
S3Cermak6Just4n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S4Cermak6Just2n = 8Cermak took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCermakJustC − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.534.9+3.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCermakJustBasisWin rate · lifetime570 / 1109 vs 163 / 33551.4%48.7%570 / 1109 vs 163 / 335Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CermakCermak 1.44/Just 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 23:30V. Cermak4071111113F. Just28117731
WSep 18 · 00:30V. Cermak4071111113F. Just27116551
LSep 15 · 08:30V. Cermak248880F. Just331111113
LSep 14 · 11:00V. Cermak50119911102F. Just49811117123
WAug 8 · 17:30V. Cermak4111811113F. Just31411791
LAug 8 · 15:30V. Cermak31871151F. Just3911116113
WJul 23 · 12:30V. Cermak531114116113F. Just4561651172
WJun 21 · 13:30V. Cermak44111011123F. Just324126101
LJun 21 · 10:30V. Cermak2281040F. Just341112113
WMay 31 · 13:30V. Cermak4011117113F. Just31781151
V. Cermak10
LOct 7 · 17:00V. Cermak2.109101161J. Pozarsky1.6711129113LOct 7 · 16:30A. Brazda2.25811129113V. Cermak1.57112101182LOct 7 · 15:30V. Cermak2.637680M. Pikous1.441111113WOct 7 · 14:30J. Pozarsky1.57911681V. Cermak2.2511611113WOct 4 · 17:30V. Cermak1.4081111133J. Stolfa2.751159111WOct 4 · 16:00M. Chlebecek1.83138613102V. Cermak1.8311111111123WOct 4 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.633870V. Cermak1.441111113WOct 4 · 14:30V. Cermak2.25111196113M. Sobisek1.5789111172LOct 4 · 13:30V. Cermak1.4011511982J. Stolfa2.75711911113WOct 4 · 12:00T. Vinter1.9181171192V. Cermak1.80116114113
F. Just10
LOct 7 · 23:00F. Just2.251191021M. Vizek1.5781112113LOct 5 · 16:59M. Sedlak1.531111113F. Just2.387570LOct 5 · 16:30M. Sedlak1.571111113F. Just2.256760LOct 5 · 15:30F. Just1.531111111102J. Stolfa2.38811139123LOct 5 · 14:30M. Vedmoch2.201111123F. Just1.6188100LSep 25 · 03:30D. Tuma1.551111123F. Just2.3079100LSep 25 · 03:28M. Tuma2.251111123F. Just1.5779100LSep 25 · 01:30F. Just3.0088111162D. Tuma1.36111199113WSep 25 · 00:30M. Vedmoch2.25471151F. Just1.5711117113LSep 24 · 23:30V. Cermak1.5771111113F. Just2.25117731
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