TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Karl Zimmermann vs Pylyp Koloidenko 3-1 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115911112119––
Pylyp Koloidenko
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:21 and never touched: 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeKarl Zimmermann to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKarl Zimmermann above · Pylyp Koloidenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 69 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Karl Zimmermann at 70.9%
69 points played in total.
H2H Karl Zimmermann 1–1 Pylyp Koloidenko Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2170.9%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 4.1pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Zimmermann
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Zimmermann 1652 vs Koloidenko 1385
Zimmermann
Correct
both rated, 267 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zimmermann 60% vs Koloidenko 40%
Zimmermann
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zimmermann 50% vs Koloidenko 30%
Zimmermann
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zimmermann +1 · Koloidenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Zimmermann) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zimmermann form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZimmermann 1.333 / Koloidenko 3.25
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Zimmermann)-4.1pp (anti-value)
Challenger Series TT · #13246655
Zimmermann1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 13 days ago (Sep 22) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite86% won 19 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Koloidenko3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 41 days ago (Aug 25) · back after a break
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog13% won 2 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back8% 1 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeZimmermann1wins
AwayKoloidenko1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricZimmermannKoloidenkoZ − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match44.039.5+4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZimmermannKoloidenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime37 / 64 vs 45 / 14457.8%31.3%37 / 64 vs 45 / 144Avg sets wonper match2.11.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.632.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZimmermannZimmermann 1.33/Koloidenko 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Zimmermann · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zimmermann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 5 · 06:30K. Zimmermann4211911113P. Koloidenko27511291
LJun 9 · 08:00K. Zimmermann461111311102P. Koloidenko52913117123
K. Zimmermann10
WSep 22 · 10:30K. Zimmermann1.601111113M. Stefanidis2.155370LSep 22 · 09:15O. Kosolosky—1111113K. Zimmermann—7510WSep 22 · 07:00R. Turrini1.1149100K. Zimmermann6.001111123WSep 21 · 17:30S. Happek3.2555110K. Zimmermann1.331111133LSep 21 · 14:30S. Almeida2.05116115113K. Zimmermann1.7061151162WSep 21 · 13:00C. Schmitt5.00651161K. Zimmermann1.1411119113LSep 21 · 11:00O. Kosolosky1.061111113K. Zimmermann8.008740LSep 21 · 10:00M. Stefanidis—1111911153K. Zimmermann—961113132WSep 21 · 06:30A. Moreno3.25712521K. Zimmermann1.33111011113LSep 18 · 08:00D. Rinderer1.221111113K. Zimmermann4.002480
P. Koloidenko10
LAug 25 · 08:00P. Koloidenko5.106560E. Huzsvar1.121111113WAug 24 · 17:00P. Koloidenko2.001111113M. Kupfer1.736950WAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113LAug 24 · 10:30P. Koloidenko4.50611771M. Henninger1.1711811113LAug 24 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.08167111162A. Moreno7.00181196113LAug 24 · 06:30P. Koloidenko7.506770V. Yefimov1.071111113WApr 17 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.081211113A. Moreno7.0010730LApr 17 · 06:30P. Koloidenko2.1011111131Y. Rebetez1.6713136113LApr 16 · 16:00P. Koloidenko7.5091351162D. Rinderer1.071111114113
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