TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yehor Riadynskyi vs Volodymir Maksuta 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1158111181210––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:02 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeYehor Riadynskyi to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYehor Riadynskyi above · Volodymir Maksuta below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 76 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Yehor Riadynskyi at 56.6%
76 points played in total.
H2H Yehor Riadynskyi 3–3 Volodymir Maksuta Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:0256.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Riadynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Riadynskyi 1692 vs Maksuta 1624
Riadynskyi
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Riadynskyi 40% vs Maksuta 0%
Riadynskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Riadynskyi 60% vs Maksuta 30%
Riadynskyi
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Riadynskyi -2 · Maksuta -5
Maksuta
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Riadynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksuta form (0%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRiadynskyi 1.666 / Maksuta 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Riadynskyi)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245297
Riadynskyi1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 169 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it92% 77 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it77% 120 of 155
Maksuta2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 25 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeRiadynskyi3wins
AwayMaksuta3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRiadynskyi66.7%2 of 3
AwayMaksuta66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Riadynskyi3Maksuta3n = 6split evenly
S2Riadynskyi3Maksuta3n = 6split evenly
S3Riadynskyi3Maksuta3n = 6split evenly
S4Riadynskyi3Maksuta1n = 4Riadynskyi took 3 of 4
S5Riadynskyi1Maksuta2n = 3Maksuta took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricRiadynskyiMaksutaR − MBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match39.238.8+0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRiadynskyiMaksutaBasisWin rate · lifetime388 / 682 vs 182 / 32056.9%56.9%388 / 682 vs 182 / 320Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RiadynskyiRiadynskyi 1.67/Maksuta 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Riadynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Riadynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 20 · 18:00Y. Riadynskyi2051140V. Maksuta351113113
WAug 17 · 18:30Y. Riadynskyi331111113V. Maksuta196580
LAug 6 · 17:14Y. Riadynskyi4889111282V. Maksuta501111710113
LAug 6 · 15:30Y. Riadynskyi3711471142V. Maksuta45411118113
WJul 2 · 12:00Y. Riadynskyi496111110113V. Maksuta4411391292
WJun 25 · 15:50Y. Riadynskyi48121312113V. Maksuta4010111451
Y. Riadynskyi10
LOct 5 · 15:10E. Hrytsenko2.381111113Y. Riadynskyi1.535850LOct 5 · 14:10Y. Riadynskyi1.6769110O. Strutinskiy2.101111133WOct 5 · 13:10O. Zhyrnov3.00981291Y. Riadynskyi1.36111110113WOct 5 · 11:40Y. Riadynskyi1.53111011113A. Derevianko2.38612991LOct 2 · 12:50A. Derevianko2.38811311113Y. Riadynskyi1.5311811882WOct 2 · 11:20Y. Riadynskyi1.67641112113O. Strutinskiy2.10111141072WOct 2 · 09:20I. Nitchenko2.501197101Y. Riadynskyi1.5041111123WOct 2 · 07:20E. Hrytsenko2.201188101Y. Riadynskyi1.6191111123LOct 2 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.831111113Y. Riadynskyi1.837890WOct 1 · 18:00Y. Riadynskyi1.571211116133A. Nazarov2.251013911112
V. Maksuta10
LOct 5 · 16:10O. Strutinskiy1.671411113V. Maksuta2.1012260LOct 5 · 14:40O. Zhyrnov1.91612911113V. Maksuta1.80111011982LOct 5 · 12:40A. Derevianko1.611111113V. Maksuta2.209550LOct 5 · 10:40E. Hrytsenko1.8371111113V. Maksuta1.83119251LOct 1 · 17:10E. Hrytsenko1.911111113V. Maksuta1.807850WOct 1 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.759950V. Maksuta1.401111113WOct 1 · 14:40V. Merzlikin2.1010910V. Maksuta1.671211113LOct 1 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.751311113V. Maksuta1.4011770WOct 1 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.83119961V. Maksuta1.8351111113LSep 28 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.501181091M. Mrykh2.5091112113
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