TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Zhyrnov vs Volodymir Maksuta 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111210911119118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:39 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymir Maksuta to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Zhyrnov above · Volodymir Maksuta below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 98 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Volodymir Maksuta at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhyrnov 9–9 Volodymir Maksuta Dead even across their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3954.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Maksuta
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-9 in 18
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhyrnov 1676 vs Maksuta 1644
Zhyrnov
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhyrnov 40% vs Maksuta 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhyrnov 60% vs Maksuta 40%
Zhyrnov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhyrnov -2 · Maksuta -3
Maksuta
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Maksuta) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksuta form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhyrnov 1.909 / Maksuta 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Maksuta)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245192
Zhyrnov1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 63 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Maksuta1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 87 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it82% 68 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhyrnov4wins
AwayMaksuta6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMaksuta leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhyrnov50%3 of 6
AwayMaksuta75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhyrnov6Maksuta4n = 10Zhyrnov took 6 of 10
S2Zhyrnov4Maksuta6n = 10Maksuta took 6 of 10
S3Zhyrnov3Maksuta7n = 10Maksuta took 7 of 10
S4Zhyrnov5Maksuta3n = 8Zhyrnov took 5 of 8
S5Zhyrnov2Maksuta3n = 5Maksuta took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhyrnovMaksutaZ − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.141.0−0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhyrnovMaksutaBasisWin rate · lifetime384 / 765 vs 182 / 31850.2%57.2%384 / 765 vs 182 / 318Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaksutaZhyrnov 1.91/Maksuta 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Maksuta · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zhyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov35119961V. Maksuta3851111113
LSep 28 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov4311611782V. Maksuta45811411113
LSep 10 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov52811131192V. Maksuta55119159113
LJul 30 · 13:40O. Zhyrnov32118581V. Maksuta4291111113
LJul 29 · 15:40O. Zhyrnov497111011102V. Maksuta52119128123
WJul 16 · 15:40O. Zhyrnov551191113113V. Maksuta52911131182
WJul 14 · 13:10O. Zhyrnov46116711113V. Maksuta4471111872
WJul 9 · 13:40O. Zhyrnov341112113V. Maksuta2131080
WJul 8 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov4071111113V. Maksuta28117371
LJun 18 · 21:50O. Zhyrnov153930V. Maksuta331111113
O. Zhyrnov10
LOct 5 · 15:40O. Zhyrnov3.0011940A. Derevianko1.361311113LOct 5 · 13:10O. Zhyrnov3.00981291Y. Riadynskyi1.36111110113LOct 5 · 11:10O. Zhyrnov2.75117931O. Strutinskiy1.4031111113WOct 3 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.441310891O. Zhyrnov2.63111211113LOct 3 · 11:20O. Zhyrnov3.25121176112O. Strutinskiy1.331031111133WOct 3 · 09:20A. Derevianko1.40612791O. Zhyrnov2.75111011113WOct 3 · 07:20A. Nazarov1.57511110O. Zhyrnov2.251113133WOct 3 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.5098110O. Zhyrnov2.501111133LOct 1 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov1.44891181V. Merzlikin2.6311118113WOct 1 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov2.00912119113E. Hrytsenko1.73111071152
V. Maksuta10
LOct 5 · 12:40A. Derevianko1.611111113V. Maksuta2.209550LOct 5 · 10:40E. Hrytsenko1.8371111113V. Maksuta1.83119251LOct 1 · 17:10E. Hrytsenko1.911111113V. Maksuta1.807850WOct 1 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.759950V. Maksuta1.401111113WOct 1 · 14:40V. Merzlikin2.1010910V. Maksuta1.671211113LOct 1 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.751311113V. Maksuta1.4011770WOct 1 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.83119961V. Maksuta1.8351111113LSep 28 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.501181091M. Mrykh2.5091112113WSep 28 · 15:10V. Maksuta1.8012711113E. Hrytsenko1.911011441LSep 28 · 13:40V. Maksuta1.9161111942O. Strutinskiy1.80117811113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.