TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Derevianko vs Volodymir Maksuta 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115115––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:36 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeAndrii Derevianko to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Volodymir Maksuta below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 52 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Andrii Derevianko at 59.3%
52 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 10–2 Volodymir Maksuta Volodymir Maksuta has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:3659.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Derevianko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-2 in 12
Derevianko
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1669 vs Maksuta 1657
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 20% vs Maksuta 40%
Maksuta
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 40% vs Maksuta 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko -2 · Maksuta -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Derevianko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 1.615 / Maksuta 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Derevianko)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245398
Derevianko1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 76 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it84% 51 of 61
Maksuta2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 25 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko8wins
AwayMaksuta2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDerevianko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevianko100%7 of 7
AwayMaksuta66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko7Maksuta3n = 10Derevianko took 7 of 10
S2Derevianko7Maksuta3n = 10Derevianko took 7 of 10
S3Derevianko8Maksuta2n = 10Derevianko took 8 of 10
S4Derevianko4Maksuta1n = 5Derevianko took 4 of 5
S5Derevianko2Maksuta2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoMaksutaD − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.033.6+7.4per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoMaksutaBasisWin rate · lifetime474 / 998 vs 182 / 31747.5%57.4%474 / 998 vs 182 / 317Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoDerevianko 1.61/Maksuta 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 12:10A. Derevianko4311911123V. Maksuta336116101
WSep 7 · 14:30A. Derevianko331111113V. Maksuta258890
WSep 3 · 16:30A. Derevianko331111113V. Maksuta258890
WAug 31 · 16:30A. Derevianko50811811123V. Maksuta44114118102
WAug 27 · 16:30A. Derevianko51128713113V. Maksuta491011111162
WAug 20 · 16:00A. Derevianko341112113V. Maksuta2061040
LAug 17 · 14:30A. Derevianko4131111882V. Maksuta49119711113
WAug 14 · 16:30A. Derevianko331111113V. Maksuta203890
LAug 6 · 12:30A. Derevianko539111111112V. Maksuta44111316133
WJul 2 · 16:00A. Derevianko391111173V. Maksuta2748150
A. Derevianko10
LOct 5 · 11:40Y. Riadynskyi1.53111011113A. Derevianko2.38612991LOct 3 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.103790O. Strutinskiy1.671111113WOct 3 · 10:20A. Nazarov1.8091090A. Derevianko1.911112113LOct 3 · 09:20A. Derevianko1.40612791O. Zhyrnov2.75111011113LOct 3 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.001110115113A. Derevianko1.7381271182LOct 3 · 06:50A. Derevianko2.20111111842V. Savoliuk1.61913711113WOct 2 · 12:50A. Derevianko2.38811311113Y. Riadynskyi1.5311811882WOct 2 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.10111151392A. Derevianko1.67981115113LOct 2 · 08:50E. Hrytsenko2.5011911113A. Derevianko1.50611971WOct 2 · 07:50A. Derevianko2.201111113O. Strutinskiy1.618760
V. Maksuta10
LOct 5 · 10:40E. Hrytsenko1.8371111113V. Maksuta1.83119251LOct 1 · 17:10E. Hrytsenko1.911111113V. Maksuta1.807850WOct 1 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.759950V. Maksuta1.401111113WOct 1 · 14:40V. Merzlikin2.1010910V. Maksuta1.671211113LOct 1 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.751311113V. Maksuta1.4011770WOct 1 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.83119961V. Maksuta1.8351111113LSep 28 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.501181091M. Mrykh2.5091112113WSep 28 · 15:10V. Maksuta1.8012711113E. Hrytsenko1.911011441LSep 28 · 13:40V. Maksuta1.9161111942O. Strutinskiy1.80117811113LSep 28 · 12:10V. Maksuta2.386116101A. Derevianko1.5311911123
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