TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Mrykh vs Andrii Derevianko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191185111315911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:44 and never touched: 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeAndrii Derevianko to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Andrii Derevianko @ 1.67 · Won
How it is goingMaksym Mrykh above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 103 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Andrii Derevianko at 57.8%
103 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Mrykh 44–94 Andrii Derevianko Maksym Mrykh has won 44 of their 138 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:4457.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Derevianko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
44-94 in 138
Derevianko
Correct
gap of 50 in 138, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrykh 1650 vs Derevianko 1698
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrykh 40% vs Derevianko 20%
Mrykh
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrykh 30% vs Derevianko 50%
Derevianko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrykh -1 · Derevianko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Derevianko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrykh 2.10 / Derevianko 1.666
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Derevianko)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228949
Mrykh2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 44 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back18% 9 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Derevianko1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 76 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it84% 52 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrykh5wins
AwayDerevianko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrykh66.7%4 of 6
AwayDerevianko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrykh6Derevianko4n = 10Mrykh took 6 of 10
S2Mrykh5Derevianko5n = 10split evenly
S3Mrykh2Derevianko8n = 10Derevianko took 8 of 10
S4Mrykh5Derevianko4n = 9Mrykh took 5 of 9
S5Mrykh2Derevianko1n = 3Mrykh took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrykhDereviankoM − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.741.0−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrykhDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 465 vs 471 / 99046.5%47.6%216 / 465 vs 471 / 990Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoMrykh 2.10/Derevianko 1.67
Hit
What we said
57.8%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Andrii Derevianko @ 1.67 · Won
What happened
2–3
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 08:20M. Mrykh3891121152A. Derevianko49117119113
WSep 26 · 08:20M. Mrykh4171211113A. Derevianko351110861
WSep 25 · 07:50M. Mrykh541114116123A. Derevianko54816911102
LSep 24 · 18:00M. Mrykh143740A. Derevianko331111113
WSep 22 · 11:50M. Mrykh4918119113A. Derevianko401661171
LSep 14 · 17:00M. Mrykh36117991A. Derevianko4071111113
WSep 10 · 16:00M. Mrykh4111127113A. Derevianko356101181
LSep 8 · 10:20M. Mrykh338111041A. Derevianko3711312113
WSep 7 · 13:00M. Mrykh47118511123A. Derevianko45711116102
LSep 1 · 10:50M. Mrykh341131191A. Derevianko4271113113
M. Mrykh10
WOct 2 · 11:50E. Hrytsenko1.80811971M. Mrykh1.9111911113LOct 2 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.91981111122O. Strutinskiy1.80111189143WOct 2 · 08:20M. Mrykh1.801111123I. Nitchenko1.9177100WOct 2 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.831111113Y. Riadynskyi1.837890LSep 29 · 11:50E. Hrytsenko1.83112611113M. Mrykh1.8371111972LSep 29 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.0021161192V. Savoliuk1.73118116113LSep 29 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.83129130O. Strutinskiy1.831411153LSep 29 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.2091121152A. Derevianko1.61117119113LSep 29 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.6731011141I. Nitchenko2.1011124163WSep 28 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.501181091M. Mrykh2.5091112113
A. Derevianko10
LOct 2 · 08:50E. Hrytsenko2.5011911113A. Derevianko1.50611971WOct 2 · 07:50A. Derevianko2.201111113O. Strutinskiy1.618760LOct 2 · 06:50I. Nitchenko1.611111143A. Derevianko2.2078120LOct 1 · 18:30A. Derevianko2.381311881O. Seliuchenko1.5315811113LOct 1 · 16:30Y. Riadynskyi1.50119811133A. Derevianko2.50811116112WOct 1 · 15:30A. Derevianko2.1091112133O. Strutinskiy1.6711810111WOct 1 · 14:30A. Nazarov1.73851171A. Derevianko2.0011119113WOct 1 · 13:00A. Derevianko2.201110115113V. Savoliuk1.6191271132LSep 29 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.1099100O. Strutinskiy1.671111123WSep 29 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.2091121152A. Derevianko1.61117119113
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