TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Derevianko vs Oleksandr Strutinskiy 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
91111812101311––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:55 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Oleksandr Strutinskiy @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Oleksandr Strutinskiy below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 85 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 56.6%
85 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 55–71 Oleksandr Strutinskiy Andrii Derevianko has won 55 of their 126 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:5556.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Strutinskiy
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
55-71 in 126
Strutinskiy
Wrong
gap of 16 in 126, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1732 vs Strutinskiy 1713
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 60% vs Strutinskiy 80%
Strutinskiy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 60% vs Strutinskiy 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko +2 · Strutinskiy -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Strutinskiy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strutinskiy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 2.10 / Strutinskiy 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Strutinskiy)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223833
Derevianko2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 134 of 322
Down 0–1, comes back25% 45 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 98
Strutinskiy1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 143 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it87% 71 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it73% 102 of 140
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko2wins
AwayStrutinskiy8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStrutinskiy leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevianko33.3%1 of 3
AwayStrutinskiy85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko3Strutinskiy7n = 10Strutinskiy took 7 of 10
S2Derevianko2Strutinskiy8n = 10Strutinskiy took 8 of 10
S3Derevianko3Strutinskiy7n = 10Strutinskiy took 7 of 10
S4Derevianko3Strutinskiy4n = 7Strutinskiy took 4 of 7
S5Derevianko2Strutinskiy2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoStrutinskiyD − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.640.8−6.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoStrutinskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime469 / 984 vs 421 / 81047.7%52%469 / 984 vs 421 / 810Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyDerevianko 2.10/Strutinskiy 1.67
Miss
What we said
56.6%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Strutinskiy @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 12:20A. Derevianko2899100O. Strutinskiy341111123
LSep 28 · 17:40A. Derevianko4011118101O. Strutinskiy4151311123
LSep 25 · 11:20A. Derevianko178630O. Strutinskiy331111113
LSep 24 · 16:30A. Derevianko236980O. Strutinskiy331111113
LSep 22 · 08:20A. Derevianko25112661O. Strutinskiy4291111113
WSep 18 · 13:00A. Derevianko45511711113O. Strutinskiy4411911942
WSep 15 · 08:20A. Derevianko491110116113O. Strutinskiy4571281172
LSep 14 · 14:00A. Derevianko31611681O. Strutinskiy4011711113
LSep 11 · 05:50A. Derevianko4156111182O. Strutinskiy46111176113
LSep 10 · 18:30A. Derevianko4789111182O. Strutinskiy50111189113
A. Derevianko10
WOct 1 · 14:30A. Nazarov1.73851171A. Derevianko2.0011119113WOct 1 · 13:00A. Derevianko2.201110115113V. Savoliuk1.6191271132LSep 29 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.1099100O. Strutinskiy1.671111123WSep 29 · 10:20E. Hrytsenko2.507950A. Derevianko1.501111113LSep 29 · 09:20A. Derevianko2.2511811662I. Nitchenko1.57811911113WSep 29 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.2091121152A. Derevianko1.61117119113WSep 29 · 06:50A. Derevianko2.2011116113V. Savoliuk1.61851161LSep 28 · 17:40O. Strutinskiy1.7351311123A. Derevianko2.0011118101WSep 28 · 16:10A. Derevianko1.401313133O. Zhyrnov2.751111110LSep 28 · 14:10E. Hrytsenko2.501171111133A. Derevianko1.50611139112
O. Strutinskiy10
LOct 1 · 13:30Y. Riadynskyi1.671211113O. Strutinskiy2.1010970WOct 1 · 12:30A. Nazarov2.25311941O. Strutinskiy1.5711511113WSep 29 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.1099100O. Strutinskiy1.671111123WSep 29 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.8366131152O. Strutinskiy1.831111114113WSep 29 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.83129130O. Strutinskiy1.831411153LSep 29 · 07:50V. Savoliuk1.401111113O. Strutinskiy2.757790LSep 29 · 05:50E. Hrytsenko2.7581111113O. Strutinskiy1.40116651WSep 28 · 17:40O. Strutinskiy1.7351311123A. Derevianko2.0011118101WSep 28 · 15:40M. Mrykh1.67118531O. Strutinskiy2.1091111113WSep 28 · 13:40V. Maksuta1.9161111942O. Strutinskiy1.80117811113
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