TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Mrykh vs Yehor Riadynskyi 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118119––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:17 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Mrykh to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Mrykh above · Yehor Riadynskyi below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 57 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Maksym Mrykh at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Mrykh 6–3 Yehor Riadynskyi Yehor Riadynskyi has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:1754.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Riadynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Mrykh
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrykh 1645 vs Riadynskyi 1690
Riadynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrykh 0% vs Riadynskyi 60%
Riadynskyi
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrykh 20% vs Riadynskyi 60%
Riadynskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrykh -5 · Riadynskyi +2
Mrykh
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mrykh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrykh form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrykh 1.833 / Riadynskyi 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mrykh)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13228950
Mrykh1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 29)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Riadynskyi1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMrykh6wins
AwayRiadynskyi3wins
4 of 9 to a deciderMrykh leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrykh100%5 of 5
AwayRiadynskyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrykh5Riadynskyi4n = 9Mrykh took 5 of 9
S2Mrykh6Riadynskyi3n = 9Mrykh took 6 of 9
S3Mrykh5Riadynskyi4n = 9Mrykh took 5 of 9
S4Mrykh4Riadynskyi2n = 6Mrykh took 4 of 6
S5Mrykh2Riadynskyi2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricMrykhRiadynskyiM − RBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match43.141.6+1.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrykhRiadynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 463 vs 386 / 67946.4%56.9%215 / 463 vs 386 / 679Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MrykhMrykh 1.83/Riadynskyi 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mrykh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mrykh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 2 · 06:20M. Mrykh331111113Y. Riadynskyi247890
LAug 20 · 15:00M. Mrykh51131171192Y. Riadynskyi54158119113
WAug 18 · 08:20M. Mrykh4111811113Y. Riadynskyi33911581
LAug 6 · 13:00M. Mrykh501011111352Y. Riadynskyi531213611113
WJul 28 · 07:50M. Mrykh518101111113Y. Riadynskyi4611129592
WJul 27 · 13:30M. Mrykh361113123Y. Riadynskyi29811100
LJul 1 · 21:41M. Mrykh31412871Y. Riadynskyi43111011113
WJul 1 · 20:50M. Mrykh521113710113Y. Riadynskyi51811111292
M. Mrykh10
LSep 29 · 11:50E. Hrytsenko1.83112611113M. Mrykh1.8371111972LSep 29 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.0021161192V. Savoliuk1.73118116113LSep 29 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.83129130O. Strutinskiy1.831411153LSep 29 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.2091121152A. Derevianko1.61117119113LSep 29 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.6731011141I. Nitchenko2.1011124163WSep 28 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.501181091M. Mrykh2.5091112113LSep 28 · 15:40M. Mrykh1.67118531O. Strutinskiy2.1091111113WSep 28 · 14:40M. Mrykh1.571111113O. Zhyrnov2.257770LSep 28 · 13:10M. Mrykh1.7311950E. Hrytsenko2.001311113LSep 26 · 11:50O. Seliuchenko1.781111113M. Mrykh1.924490
Y. Riadynskyi10
WOct 2 · 07:20E. Hrytsenko2.201188101Y. Riadynskyi1.6191111123WOct 1 · 18:00Y. Riadynskyi1.571211116133A. Nazarov2.251013911112WOct 1 · 16:30Y. Riadynskyi1.50119811133A. Derevianko2.50811116112LOct 1 · 15:00Y. Riadynskyi1.6714912982V. Savoliuk2.1012111011113WOct 1 · 13:30Y. Riadynskyi1.671211113O. Strutinskiy2.1010970LOct 1 · 12:00Y. Riadynskyi2.0011113982O. Seliuchenko1.73671111113WSep 12 · 12:50Y. Riadynskyi1.3011911113O. Zhyrnov3.40811891LSep 12 · 10:50M. Mrykh1.8311117103Y. Riadynskyi1.83881191WSep 12 · 08:50A. Zozulia2.637790Y. Riadynskyi1.441111113WSep 12 · 07:50Y. Riadynskyi1.67611119113O. Strutinskiy2.1011961162
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