TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Evhenii Hrytsenko vs Maksym Mrykh 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811119911711––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:37 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEvhenii Hrytsenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingEvhenii Hrytsenko above · Maksym Mrykh below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 77 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Evhenii Hrytsenko at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Evhenii Hrytsenko 11–10 Maksym Mrykh Maksym Mrykh has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3754.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hrytsenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrytsenko 1659 vs Mrykh 1641
Hrytsenko
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrytsenko 60% vs Mrykh 40%
Hrytsenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrytsenko 70% vs Mrykh 30%
Hrytsenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrytsenko -1 · Mrykh -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hrytsenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrykh form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrytsenko 1.80 / Mrykh 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hrytsenko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229035
Hrytsenko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 51 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it73% 35 of 48
Mrykh1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 44 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back18% 9 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrytsenko7wins
AwayMrykh3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHrytsenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrytsenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayMrykh66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrytsenko7Mrykh3n = 10Hrytsenko took 7 of 10
S2Hrytsenko5Mrykh5n = 10split evenly
S3Hrytsenko4Mrykh6n = 10Mrykh took 6 of 10
S4Hrytsenko4Mrykh3n = 7Hrytsenko took 4 of 7
S5Hrytsenko3Mrykh0n = 3Hrytsenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrytsenkoMrykhH − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.536.1+2.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrytsenkoMrykhBasisWin rate · lifetime320 / 652 vs 216 / 46649.1%46.4%320 / 652 vs 216 / 466Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrytsenkoHrytsenko 1.80/Mrykh 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hrytsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mrykh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 11:50E. Hrytsenko41112611113M. Mrykh4571111972
WSep 28 · 13:10E. Hrytsenko351311113M. Mrykh2511950
WSep 25 · 08:50E. Hrytsenko4211119113M. Mrykh38991191
LSep 22 · 08:50E. Hrytsenko35811971M. Mrykh4211911113
WSep 21 · 18:30E. Hrytsenko4311129113M. Mrykh334101181
LSep 14 · 12:30E. Hrytsenko3811710101M. Mrykh4051112123
WSep 8 · 08:20E. Hrytsenko331111113M. Mrykh226790
WSep 7 · 15:00E. Hrytsenko47117117113M. Mrykh4171181142
LAug 21 · 08:20E. Hrytsenko239860M. Mrykh331111113
WAug 18 · 10:50E. Hrytsenko48781111113M. Mrykh4211114882
E. Hrytsenko10
LOct 2 · 10:20E. Hrytsenko1.739101291I. Nitchenko2.00111210113WOct 2 · 08:50E. Hrytsenko2.5011911113A. Derevianko1.50611971LOct 2 · 07:20E. Hrytsenko2.201188101Y. Riadynskyi1.6191111123WOct 2 · 05:50E. Hrytsenko2.501111113O. Strutinskiy1.509870WOct 1 · 17:10E. Hrytsenko1.911111113V. Maksuta1.807850LOct 1 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov2.00912119113E. Hrytsenko1.73111071152WOct 1 · 14:10E. Hrytsenko1.8311117113M. Tiutiunnyk1.83741161WOct 1 · 13:10V. Merzlikin2.00113761E. Hrytsenko1.7351111113WOct 1 · 11:40E. Hrytsenko1.531111113Y. Holoborodko2.382780WSep 29 · 11:50E. Hrytsenko1.83112611113M. Mrykh1.8371111972
M. Mrykh10
LOct 2 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.10111151392A. Derevianko1.67981115113LOct 2 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.91981111122O. Strutinskiy1.80111189143WOct 2 · 08:20M. Mrykh1.801111123I. Nitchenko1.9177100WOct 2 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.831111113Y. Riadynskyi1.837890LSep 29 · 11:50E. Hrytsenko1.83112611113M. Mrykh1.8371111972LSep 29 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.0021161192V. Savoliuk1.73118116113LSep 29 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.83129130O. Strutinskiy1.831411153LSep 29 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.2091121152A. Derevianko1.61117119113LSep 29 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.6731011141I. Nitchenko2.1011124163WSep 28 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.501181091M. Mrykh2.5091112113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.