TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Zhyrnov vs Evhenii Hrytsenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111210117911115
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:00 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEvhenii Hrytsenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Zhyrnov above · Evhenii Hrytsenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 96 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Evhenii Hrytsenko at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhyrnov 28–32 Evhenii Hrytsenko Oleksandr Zhyrnov has won 28 of their 60 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:0054.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hrytsenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
28-32 in 60
Hrytsenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhyrnov 1665 vs Hrytsenko 1649
Zhyrnov
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhyrnov 60% vs Hrytsenko 80%
Hrytsenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhyrnov 50% vs Hrytsenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhyrnov +2 · Hrytsenko +4
Hrytsenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hrytsenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrytsenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhyrnov 2.00 / Hrytsenko 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hrytsenko)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13224881
Zhyrnov2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 60 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Hrytsenko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 49 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it74% 34 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhyrnov4wins
AwayHrytsenko6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHrytsenko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhyrnov66.7%4 of 6
AwayHrytsenko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhyrnov6Hrytsenko4n = 10Zhyrnov took 6 of 10
S2Zhyrnov1Hrytsenko9n = 10Hrytsenko took 9 of 10
S3Zhyrnov7Hrytsenko3n = 10Zhyrnov took 7 of 10
S4Zhyrnov4Hrytsenko4n = 8split evenly
S5Zhyrnov2Hrytsenko3n = 5Hrytsenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhyrnovHrytsenkoZ − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.941.5−3.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhyrnovHrytsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 767 vs 318 / 64850.3%49.1%386 / 767 vs 318 / 648Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrytsenkoZhyrnov 2.00/Hrytsenko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hrytsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zhyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov4011711113E. Hrytsenko34911951
LSep 8 · 10:50O. Zhyrnov4911991192E. Hrytsenko46711116113
LJul 30 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov44751111102E. Hrytsenko51111189123
LJul 29 · 13:10O. Zhyrnov28851141E. Hrytsenko4011117113
LJul 25 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov4511516492E. Hrytsenko547111411113
LJul 19 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov144550E. Hrytsenko331111113
LJul 14 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov35961191E. Hrytsenko4011117113
WJul 9 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov44115134113E. Hrytsenko45911111132
WJul 8 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov47116811113E. Hrytsenko4791111792
WJul 2 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov331111113E. Hrytsenko259880
O. Zhyrnov10
WOct 1 · 13:40O. Zhyrnov1.4011114113Y. Holoborodko2.75831191WOct 1 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.501111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.505840LOct 1 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.83119961V. Maksuta1.8351111113WSep 28 · 17:10E. Hrytsenko1.73911951O. Zhyrnov2.0011711113LSep 28 · 16:10A. Derevianko1.401313133O. Zhyrnov2.751111110LSep 28 · 14:40M. Mrykh1.571111113O. Zhyrnov2.257770LSep 28 · 12:40O. Strutinskiy1.301111912113O. Zhyrnov3.4018111462LSep 28 · 10:40V. Maksuta1.83811411113O. Zhyrnov1.8311611782WSep 27 · 11:30O. Zhyrnov1.8051113113O. Varlamov1.911141171WSep 27 · 09:30Y. Bondarenko1.831184101O. Zhyrnov1.8381111123
E. Hrytsenko10
WOct 1 · 14:10E. Hrytsenko1.8311117113M. Tiutiunnyk1.83741161WOct 1 · 13:10V. Merzlikin2.00113761E. Hrytsenko1.7351111113WOct 1 · 11:40E. Hrytsenko1.531111113Y. Holoborodko2.382780WSep 29 · 11:50E. Hrytsenko1.83112611113M. Mrykh1.8371111972LSep 29 · 10:20E. Hrytsenko2.507950A. Derevianko1.501111113LSep 29 · 08:50E. Hrytsenko2.75614161V. Savoliuk1.40111211113LSep 29 · 07:20E. Hrytsenko1.7310690I. Nitchenko2.001211113WSep 29 · 05:50E. Hrytsenko2.7581111113O. Strutinskiy1.40116651LSep 28 · 17:10E. Hrytsenko1.73911951O. Zhyrnov2.0011711113LSep 28 · 15:10V. Maksuta1.8012711113E. Hrytsenko1.911011441
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