TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Zhyrnov vs Oleg Varlamov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111141311117––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhyrnov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Zhyrnov above · Oleg Varlamov below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 73 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Oleksandr Zhyrnov at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhyrnov 29–35 Oleg Varlamov Oleksandr Zhyrnov has won 29 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:37What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zhyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-35 in 64
Varlamov
Wrong
gap of 6 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhyrnov 1684 vs Varlamov 1508
Zhyrnov
Correct
both rated, 176 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhyrnov 80% vs Varlamov 0%
Zhyrnov
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhyrnov 70% vs Varlamov 20%
Zhyrnov
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhyrnov +4 · Varlamov -8
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Zhyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varlamov form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhyrnov 1.80 / Varlamov 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Zhyrnov)+3.8pp
Setka Cup · #13202784
Zhyrnov1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 113 of 177
Up 2–0, closes it95% 57 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it85% 87 of 103
Varlamov1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 56 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back32% 21 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhyrnov3wins
AwayVarlamov7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVarlamov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhyrnovn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayVarlamov70%7 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhyrnov0Varlamov10n = 10Varlamov took 10 of 10
S2Zhyrnov5Varlamov5n = 10split evenly
S3Zhyrnov5Varlamov5n = 10split evenly
S4Zhyrnov3Varlamov4n = 7Varlamov took 4 of 7
S5Zhyrnov2Varlamov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhyrnovVarlamovZ − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match36.240.7−4.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhyrnovVarlamovBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 765 vs 243 / 52350.3%46.5%385 / 765 vs 243 / 523Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhyrnovZhyrnov 1.80/Varlamov 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Zhyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zhyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov2879120O. Varlamov361111143
WAug 29 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov41611112113O. Varlamov4211931182
WAug 26 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov48871111113O. Varlamov4211117492
LAug 22 · 13:10O. Zhyrnov418617101O. Varlamov49111115123
LAug 1 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov46811114122O. Varlamov48118411143
WJul 30 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov3741111113O. Varlamov34116981
LJul 29 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov2241350O. Varlamov371115113
LJul 22 · 13:40O. Zhyrnov2612590O. Varlamov361411113
LJul 16 · 13:10O. Zhyrnov43411111162O. Varlamov45114136113
LJul 14 · 15:40O. Zhyrnov30711931O. Varlamov3811511113
O. Zhyrnov10
WSep 27 · 09:30Y. Bondarenko1.831184101O. Zhyrnov1.8381111123WSep 27 · 07:30O. Blashkun2.10117841O. Zhyrnov1.6771111113WSep 27 · 06:30O. Zhyrnov1.441111113Y. Makovka2.632760WSep 27 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi1.83991161O. Zhyrnov1.8311117113LSep 26 · 12:20A. Derevianko1.361011148113O. Zhyrnov3.00126121162WSep 26 · 11:20V. Savoliuk1.44811118132O. Zhyrnov2.63118411153WSep 26 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.5391181182O. Zhyrnov2.38116117113LSep 26 · 07:50M. Deineha1.831111123O. Zhyrnov1.8355100LSep 26 · 05:50O. Seliuchenko1.40611129113O. Zhyrnov2.75116101152WSep 24 · 19:00O. Zhyrnov2.7511119123V. Savoliuk1.409611101
O. Varlamov10
LSep 27 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.5795111142Y. Makovka2.25111145113LSep 27 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.3011119113O. Varlamov3.40951131LSep 27 · 06:00O. Blashkun1.73126117123O. Varlamov2.001011711102LSep 27 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko1.501111153O. Varlamov2.5057130LSep 13 · 11:00O. Varlamov3.0010430A. Droshchynskyi1.361211113LSep 13 · 09:00Y. Bondarenko1.441011711153O. Varlamov2.63128118142LSep 13 · 08:00O. Varlamov1.8068111182Y. Holoborodko1.91111186113LSep 13 · 07:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.61881612133O. Varlamov2.2011111410112WSep 13 · 05:30O. Varlamov1.91921112113A. Zozulia1.80111171062WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193
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