TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Derevianko vs Oleksandr Zhyrnov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121161412811116
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:46 and never touched — 71.2% is still 71.2%
Graded at full timeAndrii Derevianko to win
71.2%
71.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Oleksandr Zhyrnov below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 101 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Andrii Derevianko at 71.2%
101 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 39–8 Oleksandr Zhyrnov Oleksandr Zhyrnov has won 8 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:46What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Derevianko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-8 in 47
Derevianko
Correct
gap of 31 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1703 vs Zhyrnov 1650
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 60% vs Zhyrnov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 50% vs Zhyrnov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko +1 · Zhyrnov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Derevianko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhyrnov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 1.36 / Zhyrnov 3.00
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Derevianko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13197262
Derevianko1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 74 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it85% 50 of 59
Zhyrnov3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 59 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko9wins
AwayZhyrnov1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDerevianko leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevianko87.5%7 of 8
AwayZhyrnovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko8Zhyrnov2n = 10Derevianko took 8 of 10
S2Derevianko8Zhyrnov2n = 10Derevianko took 8 of 10
S3Derevianko5Zhyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S4Derevianko6Zhyrnov1n = 7Derevianko took 6 of 7
S5Derevianko2Zhyrnov1n = 3Derevianko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoZhyrnovD − ZBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.132.4+7.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoZhyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime461 / 972 vs 381 / 76047.4%50.1%461 / 972 vs 381 / 760Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoDerevianko 1.36/Zhyrnov 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.2%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 15:00A. Derevianko44511611113O. Zhyrnov3811511652
WSep 8 · 08:50A. Derevianko331111113O. Zhyrnov154650
WJul 25 · 10:20A. Derevianko4041111143O. Zhyrnov391179121
WJul 24 · 06:20A. Derevianko48119611113O. Zhyrnov4481111772
WJun 19 · 08:20A. Derevianko3911611113O. Zhyrnov37811991
WJun 18 · 17:50A. Derevianko331111113O. Zhyrnov136340
WJun 6 · 07:50A. Derevianko4111118113O. Zhyrnov32671181
LMay 12 · 09:20A. Derevianko5212169962O. Zhyrnov5710141111113
WMay 8 · 08:20A. Derevianko331111113O. Zhyrnov153930
WMay 7 · 20:50A. Derevianko3811115113O. Zhyrnov34881171
A. Derevianko10
WSep 26 · 10:20O. Seliuchenko1.53761181A. Derevianko2.3811117113LSep 26 · 09:20A. Derevianko2.25111111072V. Savoliuk1.57711412113LSep 26 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.2071211113A. Derevianko1.611110861WSep 26 · 06:50A. Derevianko2.1011115113M. Deineha1.67381171WSep 25 · 12:20A. Nazarov1.73511781A. Derevianko2.0011711113LSep 25 · 11:20O. Strutinskiy1.801111113A. Derevianko1.918630LSep 25 · 09:50I. Nitchenko1.6171111113A. Derevianko2.20118691LSep 25 · 07:50M. Mrykh2.101114116123A. Derevianko1.67816911102WSep 25 · 05:50E. Hrytsenko2.258980A. Derevianko1.571111113WSep 24 · 18:00A. Derevianko1.611111113M. Mrykh2.203740
O. Zhyrnov10
WSep 26 · 11:20V. Savoliuk1.44811118132O. Zhyrnov2.63118411153WSep 26 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.5391181182O. Zhyrnov2.38116117113LSep 26 · 07:50M. Deineha1.831111123O. Zhyrnov1.8355100LSep 26 · 05:50O. Seliuchenko1.40611129113O. Zhyrnov2.75116101152WSep 24 · 19:00O. Zhyrnov2.7511119123V. Savoliuk1.409611101WSep 24 · 17:00M. Mrykh1.444711111O. Zhyrnov2.6311117133LSep 24 · 15:00A. Derevianko1.36511611113O. Zhyrnov3.0011511652LSep 24 · 14:00O. Zhyrnov2.7514880O. Seliuchenko1.401611113LSep 24 · 13:00O. Strutinskiy1.3012127123O. Zhyrnov3.40101011101LSep 23 · 16:40O. Kuzyshyn2.5011117113O. Zhyrnov1.50841191
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