TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Nitchenko vs Andrii Derevianko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711118116119––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:07 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeIvan Nitchenko to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Nitchenko above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Ivan Nitchenko at 56.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Nitchenko 28–13 Andrii Derevianko Andrii Derevianko has won 13 of their 41 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:07What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Nitchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-13 in 41
Nitchenko
Correct
gap of 15 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nitchenko 1631 vs Derevianko 1726
Derevianko
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nitchenko 40% vs Derevianko 60%
Derevianko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nitchenko 60% vs Derevianko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nitchenko -1 · Derevianko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Nitchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNitchenko 1.61 / Derevianko 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Nitchenko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13190542
Nitchenko1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 44 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it77% 33 of 43
Derevianko2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 132 of 321
Down 0–1, comes back25% 46 of 184
Down 0–2, comes back12% 12 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNitchenko5wins
AwayDerevianko5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNitchenko50%3 of 6
AwayDerevianko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nitchenko6Derevianko4n = 10Nitchenko took 6 of 10
S2Nitchenko5Derevianko5n = 10split evenly
S3Nitchenko6Derevianko4n = 10Nitchenko took 6 of 10
S4Nitchenko2Derevianko5n = 7Derevianko took 5 of 7
S5Nitchenko3Derevianko3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNitchenkoDereviankoN − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.840.7+0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNitchenkoDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 398 vs 458 / 96548%47.5%191 / 398 vs 458 / 965Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NitchenkoNitchenko 1.61/Derevianko 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.1%
Nitchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nitchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 06:20I. Nitchenko461111101042A. Derevianko47751212113
WSep 18 · 16:30I. Nitchenko46812114113A. Derevianko42111041162
LSep 15 · 09:20I. Nitchenko48811111082A. Derevianko48115912113
WSep 11 · 07:20I. Nitchenko53851111183A. Derevianko53111196162
WSep 10 · 12:00I. Nitchenko331111113A. Derevianko237790
LSep 8 · 05:50I. Nitchenko45111141182A. Derevianko46513116113
LSep 4 · 06:20I. Nitchenko42111110101A. Derevianko4251312123
WAug 21 · 11:20I. Nitchenko42113116113A. Derevianko4691181172
LAug 11 · 11:50I. Nitchenko196940A. Derevianko331111113
WAug 7 · 09:20I. Nitchenko341112113A. Derevianko2781090
I. Nitchenko10
LSep 25 · 10:50I. Nitchenko1.91491271M. Mrykh1.80111110113LSep 25 · 08:20I. Nitchenko2.75811451A. Nazarov1.4011611113WSep 25 · 06:20I. Nitchenko2.0011611113O. Strutinskiy1.73411881LSep 22 · 12:50E. Hrytsenko1.801111113I. Nitchenko1.913440WSep 22 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.6312312113V. Savoliuk1.4410111071LSep 22 · 09:20O. Strutinskiy1.831112113I. Nitchenko1.8351070WSep 22 · 07:20M. Mrykh1.737912101I. Nitchenko2.00111110123LSep 22 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.20751212113I. Nitchenko1.611111101042WSep 18 · 18:00I. Nitchenko3.25991111143A. Nazarov1.33111178122WSep 18 · 16:30I. Nitchenko1.73812114113A. Derevianko2.00111041162
A. Derevianko10
LSep 25 · 07:50M. Mrykh2.101114116123A. Derevianko1.67816911102WSep 25 · 05:50E. Hrytsenko2.258980A. Derevianko1.571111113WSep 24 · 18:00A. Derevianko1.611111113M. Mrykh2.203740LSep 24 · 16:30A. Derevianko1.916980O. Strutinskiy1.801111113WSep 24 · 15:00A. Derevianko1.36511611113O. Zhyrnov3.0011511652LSep 24 · 13:30A. Derevianko2.20119971V. Savoliuk1.6181111113WSep 24 · 12:00A. Derevianko2.38111411113O. Seliuchenko1.5381111762LSep 22 · 11:50M. Mrykh2.1018119113A. Derevianko1.671661171WSep 22 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.20751212113I. Nitchenko1.611111101042LSep 18 · 16:30I. Nitchenko1.73812114113A. Derevianko2.00111041162
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