TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Mrykh vs Andrii Derevianko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Maksym Mrykh
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1816116911117––
Andrii Derevianko
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeAndrii Derevianko to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Mrykh above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 18-16
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 89 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Andrii Derevianko at 57.4%
89 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Mrykh 41–92 Andrii Derevianko Maksym Mrykh has won 41 of their 133 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Derevianko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-92 in 133
Derevianko
Wrong
gap of 51 in 133, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrykh 1651 vs Derevianko 1746
Derevianko
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrykh 20% vs Derevianko 80%
Derevianko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrykh 50% vs Derevianko 70%
Derevianko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrykh -1 · Derevianko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Derevianko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrykh 2.10 / Derevianko 1.67
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Derevianko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13172714
Mrykh2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 35 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back13% 5 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Derevianko1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 72 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it85% 49 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrykh5wins
AwayDerevianko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrykh71.4%5 of 7
AwayDerevianko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrykh7Derevianko3n = 10Mrykh took 7 of 10
S2Mrykh5Derevianko5n = 10split evenly
S3Mrykh3Derevianko7n = 10Derevianko took 7 of 10
S4Mrykh2Derevianko7n = 9Derevianko took 7 of 9
S5Mrykh3Derevianko0n = 3Mrykh took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrykhDereviankoM − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.439.6−1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrykhDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 466 vs 459 / 96246.4%47.7%216 / 466 vs 459 / 962Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoMrykh 2.10/Derevianko 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.2%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mrykh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 17:00M. Mrykh36117991A. Derevianko4071111113
WSep 10 · 16:00M. Mrykh4111127113A. Derevianko356101181
LSep 8 · 10:20M. Mrykh338111041A. Derevianko3711312113
WSep 7 · 13:00M. Mrykh47118511123A. Derevianko45711116102
LSep 1 · 10:50M. Mrykh341131191A. Derevianko4271113113
WAug 21 · 09:50M. Mrykh46111239113A. Derevianko48810111182
LAug 18 · 11:50M. Mrykh336111061A. Derevianko4211812113
WAug 15 · 10:20M. Mrykh331111113A. Derevianko217770
WAug 6 · 16:00M. Mrykh51129118113A. Derevianko49101181192
LAug 1 · 07:50M. Mrykh30851161A. Derevianko3711114113
M. Mrykh10
LSep 22 · 10:20M. Mrykh1.83116571O. Strutinskiy1.8381111113WSep 22 · 08:50M. Mrykh1.6711911113E. Hrytsenko2.10811971LSep 22 · 07:20M. Mrykh1.737912101I. Nitchenko2.00111110123LSep 22 · 05:50M. Mrykh1.91811101172V. Savoliuk1.80119127113LSep 21 · 18:30M. Mrykh1.534101181E. Hrytsenko2.3811129113WSep 21 · 16:30V. Maksuta1.44781111102M. Mrykh2.63111179123WSep 21 · 15:30M. Mrykh2.381111113V. Savoliuk1.536780WSep 21 · 14:30A. Nazarov1.836860M. Mrykh1.831111113WSep 21 · 13:00M. Mrykh1.83131194133O. Strutinskiy1.831191111112LSep 14 · 18:00A. Nazarov1.801111113M. Mrykh1.918840
A. Derevianko10
WSep 22 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.611111113E. Hrytsenko2.204680WSep 22 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.2516116113V. Savoliuk1.571431121LSep 22 · 08:20A. Derevianko2.00112661O. Strutinskiy1.7391111113WSep 22 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.20751212113I. Nitchenko1.611111101042WSep 18 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.61118111143E. Hrytsenko2.2081113522LSep 18 · 16:30I. Nitchenko1.73812114113A. Derevianko2.00111041162WSep 18 · 15:30A. Derevianko2.00117811123M. Deineha1.73611114102WSep 18 · 14:30A. Nazarov1.8011912682A. Derevianko1.916111011113WSep 18 · 13:00A. Derevianko2.00511711113O. Strutinskiy1.7311911942LSep 15 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.209680V. Savoliuk1.611111113
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