TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Strutinskiy vs Andrii Derevianko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116113––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Strutinskiy above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 50 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Strutinskiy 68–55 Andrii Derevianko Andrii Derevianko has won 55 of their 123 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:37What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Strutinskiy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
68-55 in 123
Strutinskiy
Correct
gap of 13 in 123, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strutinskiy 1652 vs Derevianko 1711
Derevianko
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strutinskiy 40% vs Derevianko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strutinskiy 40% vs Derevianko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strutinskiy -1 · Derevianko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derevianko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrutinskiy 1.80 / Derevianko 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Derevianko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13191044
Strutinskiy1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 147 of 240
Up 2–0, closes it87% 74 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it74% 106 of 144
Derevianko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 132 of 321
Down 0–1, comes back25% 46 of 184
Down 0–2, comes back12% 12 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrutinskiy6wins
AwayDerevianko4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStrutinskiy leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrutinskiy83.3%5 of 6
AwayDerevianko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strutinskiy6Derevianko4n = 10Strutinskiy took 6 of 10
S2Strutinskiy6Derevianko4n = 10Strutinskiy took 6 of 10
S3Strutinskiy4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S4Strutinskiy3Derevianko4n = 7Derevianko took 4 of 7
S5Strutinskiy3Derevianko2n = 5Strutinskiy took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrutinskiyDereviankoS − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.837.5+1.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrutinskiyDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime416 / 810 vs 458 / 96651.4%47.4%416 / 810 vs 458 / 966Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoStrutinskiy 1.80/Derevianko 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Strutinskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 16:30O. Strutinskiy331111113A. Derevianko236980
WSep 22 · 08:20O. Strutinskiy4291111113A. Derevianko25112661
LSep 18 · 13:00O. Strutinskiy4411911942A. Derevianko45511711113
LSep 15 · 08:20O. Strutinskiy4571281172A. Derevianko491110116113
WSep 14 · 14:00O. Strutinskiy4011711113A. Derevianko31611681
WSep 11 · 05:50O. Strutinskiy46111176113A. Derevianko4156111182
WSep 10 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy50111189113A. Derevianko4789111182
WSep 8 · 07:20O. Strutinskiy49131159113A. Derevianko47117111172
LSep 7 · 15:30O. Strutinskiy2710890A. Derevianko341211113
LSep 4 · 09:50O. Strutinskiy124620A. Derevianko331111113
O. Strutinskiy10
LSep 25 · 12:50M. Mrykh1.801111113O. Strutinskiy1.917360LSep 25 · 09:20A. Nazarov2.20571111113O. Strutinskiy1.6111119782WSep 25 · 07:20E. Hrytsenko1.83105100O. Strutinskiy1.831211123LSep 25 · 06:20I. Nitchenko2.0011611113O. Strutinskiy1.73411881LSep 24 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy2.7511381152O. Seliuchenko1.40711116113WSep 24 · 16:30A. Derevianko1.916980O. Strutinskiy1.801111113LSep 24 · 15:30O. Strutinskiy2.756612121V. Savoliuk1.40111110143LSep 24 · 14:30M. Mrykh1.911111113O. Strutinskiy1.805780WSep 24 · 13:00O. Strutinskiy1.3012127123O. Zhyrnov3.40101011101LSep 22 · 12:20O. Strutinskiy2.75511961V. Savoliuk1.4011511113
A. Derevianko10
WSep 25 · 12:20A. Nazarov1.73511781A. Derevianko2.0011711113LSep 25 · 09:50I. Nitchenko1.6171111113A. Derevianko2.20118691LSep 25 · 07:50M. Mrykh2.101114116123A. Derevianko1.67816911102WSep 25 · 05:50E. Hrytsenko2.258980A. Derevianko1.571111113WSep 24 · 18:00A. Derevianko1.611111113M. Mrykh2.203740LSep 24 · 16:30A. Derevianko1.916980O. Strutinskiy1.801111113WSep 24 · 15:00A. Derevianko1.36511611113O. Zhyrnov3.0011511652LSep 24 · 13:30A. Derevianko2.20119971V. Savoliuk1.6181111113WSep 24 · 12:00A. Derevianko2.38111411113O. Seliuchenko1.5381111762LSep 22 · 11:50M. Mrykh2.1018119113A. Derevianko1.671661171
Upcoming Matches
O. Strutinskiy
Nothing scheduled
A. Derevianko
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.