TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Nitchenko vs Volodymyr Savoliuk 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Ivan Nitchenko
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12103111210117––
Volodymyr Savoliuk
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:49 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Savoliuk to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Nitchenko above · Volodymyr Savoliuk below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 76 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Volodymyr Savoliuk at 64.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Nitchenko 9–15 Volodymyr Savoliuk Ivan Nitchenko has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:49What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Savoliuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-15 in 24
Savoliuk
Wrong
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nitchenko 1632 vs Savoliuk 1703
Savoliuk
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nitchenko 60% vs Savoliuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nitchenko 50% vs Savoliuk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nitchenko -1 · Savoliuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Savoliuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nitchenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNitchenko 2.63 / Savoliuk 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Savoliuk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13172349
Nitchenko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 41 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back17% 6 of 36
Savoliuk1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 126 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it93% 64 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it84% 91 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNitchenko3wins
AwaySavoliuk7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSavoliuk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNitchenko50%2 of 4
AwaySavoliuk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nitchenko4Savoliuk6n = 10Savoliuk took 6 of 10
S2Nitchenko1Savoliuk9n = 10Savoliuk took 9 of 10
S3Nitchenko4Savoliuk6n = 10Savoliuk took 6 of 10
S4Nitchenko3Savoliuk2n = 5Nitchenko took 3 of 5
S5Nitchenko1Savoliuk2n = 3Savoliuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricNitchenkoSavoliukN − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match29.538.1−8.6per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNitchenkoSavoliukBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 394 vs 303 / 53648%56.5%189 / 394 vs 303 / 536Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SavoliukNitchenko 2.63/Savoliuk 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Savoliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nitchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 11:20I. Nitchenko146440V. Savoliuk331111113
LSep 11 · 12:50I. Nitchenko3811411752V. Savoliuk47711711113
WSep 10 · 15:00I. Nitchenko51381511143V. Savoliuk551111138122
LAug 11 · 07:20I. Nitchenko4211119382V. Savoliuk48691111113
LAug 7 · 07:20I. Nitchenko101540V. Savoliuk331111113
LJul 21 · 07:20I. Nitchenko166640V. Savoliuk331111113
LJul 17 · 16:30I. Nitchenko199730V. Savoliuk331111113
WJul 14 · 10:50I. Nitchenko3911611113V. Savoliuk32811671
LJun 23 · 11:20I. Nitchenko246990V. Savoliuk331111113
WJun 16 · 07:50I. Nitchenko4211911113V. Savoliuk34711791
I. Nitchenko10
LSep 22 · 09:20O. Strutinskiy1.831112113I. Nitchenko1.8351070WSep 22 · 07:20M. Mrykh1.737912101I. Nitchenko2.00111110123LSep 22 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.20751212113I. Nitchenko1.611111101042WSep 18 · 18:00I. Nitchenko3.25991111143A. Nazarov1.33111178122WSep 18 · 16:30I. Nitchenko1.73812114113A. Derevianko2.00111041162WSep 18 · 15:00I. Nitchenko1.83911911113O. Strutinskiy1.8311711792LSep 18 · 13:30I. Nitchenko2.75631191M. Deineha1.4011118113LSep 18 · 12:00I. Nitchenko2.00811111762E. Hrytsenko1.73118619113WSep 15 · 12:50O. Zhyrnov2.209101591I. Nitchenko1.61111213113LSep 15 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.506440V. Savoliuk1.501111113
V. Savoliuk10
WSep 22 · 12:20O. Strutinskiy2.75511961V. Savoliuk1.4011511113LSep 22 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.2516116113V. Savoliuk1.571431121LSep 22 · 07:50E. Hrytsenko3.0011117113V. Savoliuk1.36491191WSep 22 · 05:50M. Mrykh1.91811101172V. Savoliuk1.80119127113WSep 21 · 19:00O. Strutinskiy3.00571161V. Savoliuk1.3611118113WSep 21 · 17:30V. Savoliuk1.33119712113E. Hrytsenko3.25511111022LSep 21 · 15:30M. Mrykh2.381111113V. Savoliuk1.536780WSep 21 · 13:30V. Maksuta2.20991251V. Savoliuk1.61111110113LSep 21 · 12:30A. Nazarov2.101112133V. Savoliuk1.67910110WSep 15 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.506440V. Savoliuk1.501111113
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