TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Derevianko vs Oleksandr Seliuchenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1315118811811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:11 and never touched: 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Seliuchenko to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Oleksandr Seliuchenko below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 85 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Oleksandr Seliuchenko at 56.8%
85 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 14–21 Oleksandr Seliuchenko Andrii Derevianko has won 14 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1156.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 8.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Seliuchenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-21 in 35
Seliuchenko
Correct
gap of 7 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1730 vs Seliuchenko 1589
Derevianko
Wrong
both rated, 141 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 60% vs Seliuchenko 40%
Derevianko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 60% vs Seliuchenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko -1 · Seliuchenko -3
Seliuchenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Seliuchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Seliuchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 2.375 / Seliuchenko 1.533
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Seliuchenko)-8.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223953
Derevianko2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 134 of 322
Down 0–1, comes back25% 45 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 98
Seliuchenko1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite58% won 77 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it74% 58 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko4wins
AwaySeliuchenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSeliuchenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevianko75%3 of 4
AwaySeliuchenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko4Seliuchenko6n = 10Seliuchenko took 6 of 10
S2Derevianko6Seliuchenko4n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S3Derevianko3Seliuchenko7n = 10Seliuchenko took 7 of 10
S4Derevianko6Seliuchenko4n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S5Derevianko1Seliuchenko2n = 3Seliuchenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoSeliuchenkoD − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.040.7−1.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoSeliuchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime470 / 986 vs 186 / 32747.7%56.9%470 / 986 vs 186 / 327Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SeliuchenkoDerevianko 2.38/Seliuchenko 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Seliuchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Seliuchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 10:20A. Derevianko4011117113O. Seliuchenko32761181
WSep 24 · 12:00A. Derevianko38111411113O. Seliuchenko4381111762
LJun 26 · 05:50A. Derevianko31711761O. Seliuchenko4211911113
LJun 22 · 20:50A. Derevianko48715101152O. Seliuchenko511113124113
WJun 18 · 14:50A. Derevianko4151213113O. Seliuchenko3811101161
LJun 15 · 18:50A. Derevianko341158101O. Seliuchenko4281111123
WJun 11 · 21:20A. Derevianko4211119113O. Seliuchenko32771171
LJun 6 · 06:20A. Derevianko341171151O. Seliuchenko3813113113
LJun 1 · 16:50A. Derevianko49911111172O. Seliuchenko47118134113
LMay 29 · 16:50A. Derevianko33691171O. Seliuchenko4211119113
A. Derevianko10
LOct 1 · 16:30Y. Riadynskyi1.50119811133A. Derevianko2.50811116112WOct 1 · 15:30A. Derevianko2.1091112133O. Strutinskiy1.6711810111WOct 1 · 14:30A. Nazarov1.73851171A. Derevianko2.0011119113WOct 1 · 13:00A. Derevianko2.201110115113V. Savoliuk1.6191271132LSep 29 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.1099100O. Strutinskiy1.671111123WSep 29 · 10:20E. Hrytsenko2.507950A. Derevianko1.501111113LSep 29 · 09:20A. Derevianko2.2511811662I. Nitchenko1.57811911113WSep 29 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.2091121152A. Derevianko1.61117119113WSep 29 · 06:50A. Derevianko2.2011116113V. Savoliuk1.61851161LSep 28 · 17:40O. Strutinskiy1.7351311123A. Derevianko2.0011118101
O. Seliuchenko10
LOct 1 · 17:30O. Strutinskiy2.751111113O. Seliuchenko1.409870LOct 1 · 16:00A. Nazarov2.381111113O. Seliuchenko1.538890LOct 1 · 14:00V. Savoliuk1.671181311143O. Seliuchenko2.10311155122WOct 1 · 12:00Y. Riadynskyi2.0011113982O. Seliuchenko1.73671111113WSep 26 · 11:50O. Seliuchenko1.781111113M. Mrykh1.924490LSep 26 · 10:20O. Seliuchenko1.53761181A. Derevianko2.3811117113LSep 26 · 08:50O. Seliuchenko1.8381111752M. Deineha1.83118611113WSep 26 · 07:20O. Seliuchenko2.20711911113V. Savoliuk1.6111711482WSep 26 · 05:50O. Seliuchenko1.40611129113O. Zhyrnov2.75116101152WSep 24 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy2.7511381152O. Seliuchenko1.40711116113
Upcoming Matches
A. Derevianko
O. Seliuchenko
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.