TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Strutinskiy vs Oleksandr Seliuchenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:28 and never touched: 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Seliuchenko to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Strutinskiy above · Oleksandr Seliuchenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 57 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Oleksandr Seliuchenko at 63.1%
57 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Strutinskiy 7–17 Oleksandr Seliuchenko Oleksandr Strutinskiy has won 7 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2863.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 8.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Seliuchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-17 in 24
Seliuchenko
Wrong
gap of 10 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strutinskiy 1702 vs Seliuchenko 1600
Strutinskiy
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strutinskiy 60% vs Seliuchenko 40%
Strutinskiy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strutinskiy 60% vs Seliuchenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strutinskiy -2 · Seliuchenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Seliuchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Seliuchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrutinskiy 2.75 / Seliuchenko 1.40
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Seliuchenko)-8.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13224097
Strutinskiy2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 58 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 61
Seliuchenko1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 77 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it74% 58 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrutinskiy1wins
AwaySeliuchenko9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSeliuchenko leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrutinskiy25%1 of 4
AwaySeliuchenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strutinskiy4Seliuchenko6n = 10Seliuchenko took 6 of 10
S2Strutinskiy1Seliuchenko9n = 10Seliuchenko took 9 of 10
S3Strutinskiy4Seliuchenko6n = 10Seliuchenko took 6 of 10
S4Strutinskiy2Seliuchenko5n = 7Seliuchenko took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrutinskiySeliuchenkoStrutinskiy − SeliuchenkoBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.838.9−6.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrutinskiySeliuchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 811 vs 186 / 32651.9%57.1%421 / 811 vs 186 / 326Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SeliuchenkoStrutinskiy 2.75/Seliuchenko 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.1%
Seliuchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Strutinskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy3811381152O. Seliuchenko46711116113
LJun 26 · 09:50O. Strutinskiy37761591O. Seliuchenko46111113113
LJun 22 · 18:50O. Strutinskiy207850O. Seliuchenko331111113
LJun 15 · 16:50O. Strutinskiy237790O. Seliuchenko331111113
LJun 11 · 18:50O. Strutinskiy3851011121O. Seliuchenko4211125143
LJun 1 · 21:20O. Strutinskiy43111011382O. Seliuchenko46312911113
LMay 30 · 06:50O. Strutinskiy32119571O. Seliuchenko3631111113
LMay 29 · 14:50O. Strutinskiy153480O. Seliuchenko331111113
LMay 25 · 20:20O. Strutinskiy378118101O. Seliuchenko4111711123
WMay 15 · 12:20O. Strutinskiy45111211113O. Seliuchenko33314791
O. Strutinskiy10
LOct 1 · 15:30A. Derevianko2.1091112133O. Strutinskiy1.6711810111LOct 1 · 13:30Y. Riadynskyi1.671211113O. Strutinskiy2.1010970WOct 1 · 12:30A. Nazarov2.25311941O. Strutinskiy1.5711511113WSep 29 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.1099100O. Strutinskiy1.671111123WSep 29 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.8366131152O. Strutinskiy1.831111114113WSep 29 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.83129130O. Strutinskiy1.831411153LSep 29 · 07:50V. Savoliuk1.401111113O. Strutinskiy2.757790LSep 29 · 05:50E. Hrytsenko2.7581111113O. Strutinskiy1.40116651WSep 28 · 17:40O. Strutinskiy1.7351311123A. Derevianko2.0011118101WSep 28 · 15:40M. Mrykh1.67118531O. Strutinskiy2.1091111113
O. Seliuchenko10
LOct 1 · 16:00A. Nazarov2.381111113O. Seliuchenko1.538890LOct 1 · 14:00V. Savoliuk1.671181311143O. Seliuchenko2.10311155122WOct 1 · 12:00Y. Riadynskyi2.0011113982O. Seliuchenko1.73671111113WSep 26 · 11:50O. Seliuchenko1.781111113M. Mrykh1.924490LSep 26 · 10:20O. Seliuchenko1.53761181A. Derevianko2.3811117113LSep 26 · 08:50O. Seliuchenko1.8381111752M. Deineha1.83118611113WSep 26 · 07:20O. Seliuchenko2.20711911113V. Savoliuk1.6111711482WSep 26 · 05:50O. Seliuchenko1.40611129113O. Zhyrnov2.75116101152WSep 24 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy2.7511381152O. Seliuchenko1.40711116113LSep 24 · 17:30V. Savoliuk1.67911117113O. Seliuchenko2.1011881182
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