TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yehor Riadynskyi vs Andrii Derevianko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161012119119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:31 and never touched: 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeYehor Riadynskyi to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYehor Riadynskyi above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 79 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Yehor Riadynskyi at 62.8%
79 points played in total.
H2H Yehor Riadynskyi 70–33 Andrii Derevianko Andrii Derevianko has won 33 of their 103 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3162.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Riadynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
70-33 in 103
Riadynskyi
Correct
gap of 37 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Riadynskyi 1700 vs Derevianko 1680
Riadynskyi
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Riadynskyi 60% vs Derevianko 20%
Riadynskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Riadynskyi 60% vs Derevianko 40%
Riadynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Riadynskyi -1 · Derevianko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Riadynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRiadynskyi 1.533 / Derevianko 2.375
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Riadynskyi)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245369
Riadynskyi1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 169 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it92% 77 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it77% 120 of 155
Derevianko2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 140 of 329
Down 0–1, comes back26% 47 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back12% 11 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRiadynskyi6wins
AwayDerevianko4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRiadynskyi leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRiadynskyi75%3 of 4
AwayDerevianko50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Riadynskyi4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S2Riadynskyi5Derevianko5n = 10split evenly
S3Riadynskyi5Derevianko5n = 10split evenly
S4Riadynskyi6Derevianko2n = 8Riadynskyi took 6 of 8
S5Riadynskyi2Derevianko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRiadynskyiDereviankoR − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.940.4+0.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRiadynskyiDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime388 / 682 vs 474 / 99756.9%47.5%388 / 682 vs 474 / 997Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RiadynskyiRiadynskyi 1.53/Derevianko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Riadynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Riadynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 12:50Y. Riadynskyi4611811882A. Derevianko44811311113
WOct 1 · 16:30Y. Riadynskyi52119811133A. Derevianko47811116112
WAug 28 · 08:20Y. Riadynskyi44101111123A. Derevianko351258101
LAug 20 · 12:00Y. Riadynskyi2512670A. Derevianko361411113
WAug 18 · 10:20Y. Riadynskyi3911611113A. Derevianko35811791
WAug 17 · 16:00Y. Riadynskyi516111110133A. Derevianko50118812112
LAug 6 · 14:00Y. Riadynskyi511111811102A. Derevianko50138116123
LAug 4 · 08:20Y. Riadynskyi197840A. Derevianko331111113
WAug 3 · 16:00Y. Riadynskyi4111115143A. Derevianko397911121
WJul 31 · 11:50Y. Riadynskyi4181111113A. Derevianko35119961
Y. Riadynskyi10
LOct 2 · 12:50A. Derevianko2.38811311113Y. Riadynskyi1.5311811882WOct 2 · 11:20Y. Riadynskyi1.67641112113O. Strutinskiy2.10111141072WOct 2 · 09:20I. Nitchenko2.501197101Y. Riadynskyi1.5041111123WOct 2 · 07:20E. Hrytsenko2.201188101Y. Riadynskyi1.6191111123LOct 2 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.831111113Y. Riadynskyi1.837890WOct 1 · 18:00Y. Riadynskyi1.571211116133A. Nazarov2.251013911112WOct 1 · 16:30Y. Riadynskyi1.50119811133A. Derevianko2.50811116112LOct 1 · 15:00Y. Riadynskyi1.6714912982V. Savoliuk2.1012111011113WOct 1 · 13:30Y. Riadynskyi1.671211113O. Strutinskiy2.1010970LOct 1 · 12:00Y. Riadynskyi2.0011113982O. Seliuchenko1.73671111113
A. Derevianko10
WOct 5 · 12:40A. Derevianko1.611111113V. Maksuta2.209550LOct 3 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.103790O. Strutinskiy1.671111113WOct 3 · 10:20A. Nazarov1.8091090A. Derevianko1.911112113LOct 3 · 09:20A. Derevianko1.40612791O. Zhyrnov2.75111011113LOct 3 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.001110115113A. Derevianko1.7381271182LOct 3 · 06:50A. Derevianko2.20111111842V. Savoliuk1.61913711113WOct 2 · 12:50A. Derevianko2.38811311113Y. Riadynskyi1.5311811882WOct 2 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.10111151392A. Derevianko1.67981115113LOct 2 · 08:50E. Hrytsenko2.5011911113A. Derevianko1.50611971LOct 1 · 16:30Y. Riadynskyi1.50119811133A. Derevianko2.50811116112
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