TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Derevianko vs Yehor Riadynskyi 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811118311118118
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:47 and never touched: 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeYehor Riadynskyi to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Yehor Riadynskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Yehor Riadynskyi at 62.8%
90 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 32–70 Yehor Riadynskyi Andrii Derevianko has won 32 of their 102 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:4762.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Riadynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-70 in 102
Riadynskyi
Wrong
gap of 38 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1707 vs Riadynskyi 1710
Riadynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 40% vs Riadynskyi 80%
Riadynskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 50% vs Riadynskyi 70%
Riadynskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko +1 · Riadynskyi +3
Riadynskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Riadynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Riadynskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 2.375 / Riadynskyi 1.533
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Riadynskyi)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229268
Derevianko2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 137 of 327
Down 0–1, comes back25% 46 of 182
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 98
Riadynskyi1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 168 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it91% 78 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it78% 121 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko4wins
AwayRiadynskyi6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRiadynskyi leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevianko57.1%4 of 7
AwayRiadynskyi100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko7Riadynskyi3n = 10Derevianko took 7 of 10
S2Derevianko5Riadynskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Derevianko6Riadynskyi4n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S4Derevianko1Riadynskyi6n = 7Riadynskyi took 6 of 7
S5Derevianko1Riadynskyi2n = 3Riadynskyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoRiadynskyiD − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.338.0+1.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoRiadynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime472 / 991 vs 388 / 68147.6%57%472 / 991 vs 388 / 681Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RiadynskyiDerevianko 2.38/Riadynskyi 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.8%
Riadynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 16:30A. Derevianko47811116112Y. Riadynskyi52119811133
LAug 28 · 08:20A. Derevianko351258101Y. Riadynskyi44101111123
WAug 20 · 12:00A. Derevianko361411113Y. Riadynskyi2512670
LAug 18 · 10:20A. Derevianko35811791Y. Riadynskyi3911611113
LAug 17 · 16:00A. Derevianko50118812112Y. Riadynskyi516111110133
WAug 6 · 14:00A. Derevianko50138116123Y. Riadynskyi511111811102
WAug 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko331111113Y. Riadynskyi197840
LAug 3 · 16:00A. Derevianko397911121Y. Riadynskyi4111115143
LJul 31 · 11:50A. Derevianko35119961Y. Riadynskyi4181111113
WJul 30 · 18:00A. Derevianko331111113Y. Riadynskyi177550
A. Derevianko10
WOct 2 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.10111151392A. Derevianko1.67981115113LOct 2 · 08:50E. Hrytsenko2.5011911113A. Derevianko1.50611971WOct 2 · 07:50A. Derevianko2.201111113O. Strutinskiy1.618760LOct 2 · 06:50I. Nitchenko1.611111143A. Derevianko2.2078120LOct 1 · 18:30A. Derevianko2.381311881O. Seliuchenko1.5315811113LOct 1 · 16:30Y. Riadynskyi1.50119811133A. Derevianko2.50811116112WOct 1 · 15:30A. Derevianko2.1091112133O. Strutinskiy1.6711810111WOct 1 · 14:30A. Nazarov1.73851171A. Derevianko2.0011119113WOct 1 · 13:00A. Derevianko2.201110115113V. Savoliuk1.6191271132LSep 29 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.1099100O. Strutinskiy1.671111123
Y. Riadynskyi10
WOct 2 · 11:20Y. Riadynskyi1.67641112113O. Strutinskiy2.10111141072WOct 2 · 09:20I. Nitchenko2.501197101Y. Riadynskyi1.5041111123WOct 2 · 07:20E. Hrytsenko2.201188101Y. Riadynskyi1.6191111123LOct 2 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.831111113Y. Riadynskyi1.837890WOct 1 · 18:00Y. Riadynskyi1.571211116133A. Nazarov2.251013911112WOct 1 · 16:30Y. Riadynskyi1.50119811133A. Derevianko2.50811116112LOct 1 · 15:00Y. Riadynskyi1.6714912982V. Savoliuk2.1012111011113WOct 1 · 13:30Y. Riadynskyi1.671211113O. Strutinskiy2.1010970LOct 1 · 12:00Y. Riadynskyi2.0011113982O. Seliuchenko1.73671111113WSep 12 · 12:50Y. Riadynskyi1.3011911113O. Zhyrnov3.40811891
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