TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Zhyrnov vs Andrii Derevianko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113911411––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:37 and never touched: 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeAndrii Derevianko to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Zhyrnov above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 59 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Andrii Derevianko at 70.4%
59 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhyrnov 9–41 Andrii Derevianko Oleksandr Zhyrnov has won 9 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:3770.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.0pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Derevianko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-41 in 50
Derevianko
Correct
gap of 32 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhyrnov 1686 vs Derevianko 1670
Zhyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhyrnov 40% vs Derevianko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhyrnov 60% vs Derevianko 40%
Zhyrnov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhyrnov +1 · Derevianko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Derevianko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhyrnov 3.00 / Derevianko 1.363
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Derevianko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245371
Zhyrnov3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 63 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Derevianko1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 76 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it84% 51 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhyrnov1wins
AwayDerevianko9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDerevianko leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhyrnov25%1 of 4
AwayDerevianko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhyrnov4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S2Zhyrnov2Derevianko8n = 10Derevianko took 8 of 10
S3Zhyrnov4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S4Zhyrnov2Derevianko5n = 7Derevianko took 5 of 7
S5Zhyrnov0Derevianko3n = 3Derevianko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhyrnovDereviankoZ − DBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.140.5−6.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhyrnovDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 766 vs 475 / 100050.3%47.5%385 / 766 vs 475 / 1000Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoZhyrnov 3.00/Derevianko 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 09:20O. Zhyrnov43111011113A. Derevianko34612791
LSep 28 · 16:10O. Zhyrnov331111110A. Derevianko391313133
LSep 26 · 12:20O. Zhyrnov47126121162A. Derevianko541011148113
LSep 24 · 15:00O. Zhyrnov3811511652A. Derevianko44511611113
LSep 8 · 08:50O. Zhyrnov154650A. Derevianko331111113
LJul 25 · 10:20O. Zhyrnov391179121A. Derevianko4041111143
LJul 24 · 06:20O. Zhyrnov4481111772A. Derevianko48119611113
LJun 19 · 08:20O. Zhyrnov37811991A. Derevianko3911611113
LJun 18 · 17:50O. Zhyrnov136340A. Derevianko331111113
LJun 6 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov32671181A. Derevianko4111118113
O. Zhyrnov10
LOct 5 · 16:40E. Hrytsenko1.731111113O. Zhyrnov2.007680WOct 5 · 14:40O. Zhyrnov1.91612911113V. Maksuta1.80111011982LOct 5 · 13:10O. Zhyrnov3.00981291Y. Riadynskyi1.36111110113LOct 5 · 11:10O. Zhyrnov2.75117931O. Strutinskiy1.4031111113WOct 3 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.441310891O. Zhyrnov2.63111211113LOct 3 · 11:20O. Zhyrnov3.25121176112O. Strutinskiy1.331031111133WOct 3 · 09:20A. Derevianko1.40612791O. Zhyrnov2.75111011113WOct 3 · 07:20A. Nazarov1.57511110O. Zhyrnov2.251113133WOct 3 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.5098110O. Zhyrnov2.501111133LOct 1 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov1.44891181V. Merzlikin2.6311118113
A. Derevianko10
LOct 5 · 13:40E. Hrytsenko2.501151111113A. Derevianko1.5071191382WOct 5 · 12:40A. Derevianko1.611111113V. Maksuta2.209550LOct 5 · 11:40Y. Riadynskyi1.53111011113A. Derevianko2.38612991LOct 3 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.103790O. Strutinskiy1.671111113WOct 3 · 10:20A. Nazarov1.8091090A. Derevianko1.911112113LOct 3 · 09:20A. Derevianko1.40612791O. Zhyrnov2.75111011113LOct 3 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.001110115113A. Derevianko1.7381271182LOct 3 · 06:50A. Derevianko2.20111111842V. Savoliuk1.61913711113WOct 2 · 12:50A. Derevianko2.38811311113Y. Riadynskyi1.5311811882WOct 2 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.10111151392A. Derevianko1.67981115113
Upcoming Matches
O. Zhyrnov
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A. Derevianko
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