TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Strutinskiy vs Volodymir Maksuta 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1412112116––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Oleksandr Strutinskiy @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingOleksandr Strutinskiy above · Volodymir Maksuta below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 56 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 54.1%
56 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Strutinskiy 7–4 Volodymir Maksuta Volodymir Maksuta has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 15:0854.1%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 5.9pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Strutinskiy
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Strutinskiy
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strutinskiy 1716 vs Maksuta 1634
Strutinskiy
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strutinskiy 100% vs Maksuta 20%
Strutinskiy
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strutinskiy 60% vs Maksuta 40%
Strutinskiy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strutinskiy +5 · Maksuta -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Strutinskiy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksuta form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrutinskiy 1.666 / Maksuta 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Strutinskiy)-5.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245204
Strutinskiy1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 147 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it87% 73 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it72% 105 of 146
Maksuta2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 25 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrutinskiy6wins
AwayMaksuta4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStrutinskiy leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrutinskiy75%3 of 4
AwayMaksuta50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strutinskiy4Maksuta6n = 10Maksuta took 6 of 10
S2Strutinskiy7Maksuta3n = 10Strutinskiy took 7 of 10
S3Strutinskiy5Maksuta5n = 10split evenly
S4Strutinskiy5Maksuta4n = 9Strutinskiy took 5 of 9
S5Strutinskiy2Maksuta1n = 3Strutinskiy took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrutinskiyMaksutaS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.139.3+1.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrutinskiyMaksutaBasisWin rate · lifetime427 / 823 vs 182 / 31951.9%57.1%427 / 823 vs 182 / 319Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyStrutinskiy 1.67/Maksuta 2.10
Hit
What we said
54.1%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Strutinskiy @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
3–0
Strutinskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 13:40O. Strutinskiy48117811113V. Maksuta4161111942
LSep 21 · 15:00O. Strutinskiy351111941V. Maksuta4413911113
WSep 7 · 12:30O. Strutinskiy3961111113V. Maksuta31117761
WSep 3 · 12:00O. Strutinskiy531211117123V. Maksuta52148911102
WAug 31 · 15:00O. Strutinskiy331111113V. Maksuta187470
WAug 27 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy48111412113V. Maksuta4313121081
LAug 20 · 12:30O. Strutinskiy381111971V. Maksuta4161311113
LAug 17 · 15:30O. Strutinskiy327111041V. Maksuta3811412113
LAug 14 · 15:30O. Strutinskiy4484121192V. Maksuta521111109113
WAug 6 · 13:30O. Strutinskiy4111118113V. Maksuta33871171
O. Strutinskiy10
WOct 5 · 14:10Y. Riadynskyi1.6769110O. Strutinskiy2.101111133WOct 5 · 12:10E. Hrytsenko2.251476101O. Strutinskiy1.57121111123WOct 5 · 11:10O. Zhyrnov2.75117931O. Strutinskiy1.4031111113WOct 3 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.103790O. Strutinskiy1.671111113WOct 3 · 11:20O. Zhyrnov3.25121176112O. Strutinskiy1.331031111133LOct 3 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.91914117113O. Strutinskiy1.80111281192WOct 3 · 07:50V. Savoliuk1.3691181282O. Strutinskiy3.001171110113LOct 3 · 05:50A. Nazarov2.2041211113O. Strutinskiy1.611110681LOct 2 · 12:20I. Nitchenko1.831351311113O. Strutinskiy1.831111111332LOct 2 · 11:20Y. Riadynskyi1.67641112113O. Strutinskiy2.10111141072
V. Maksuta10
LOct 5 · 14:40O. Zhyrnov1.91612911113V. Maksuta1.80111011982LOct 5 · 12:40A. Derevianko1.611111113V. Maksuta2.209550LOct 5 · 10:40E. Hrytsenko1.8371111113V. Maksuta1.83119251LOct 1 · 17:10E. Hrytsenko1.911111113V. Maksuta1.807850WOct 1 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.759950V. Maksuta1.401111113WOct 1 · 14:40V. Merzlikin2.1010910V. Maksuta1.671211113LOct 1 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.751311113V. Maksuta1.4011770WOct 1 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.83119961V. Maksuta1.8351111113LSep 28 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.501181091M. Mrykh2.5091112113WSep 28 · 15:10V. Maksuta1.8012711113E. Hrytsenko1.911011441
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