TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anatolii Nazarov vs Oleksandr Strutinskiy 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
4111210116118––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:41 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Oleksandr Strutinskiy @ 1.61 · Lost
How it is goingAnatolii Nazarov above · Oleksandr Strutinskiy below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 58.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Nazarov 46–85 Oleksandr Strutinskiy Anatolii Nazarov has won 46 of their 131 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 04:4158.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Strutinskiy
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
46-85 in 131
Strutinskiy
Wrong
gap of 39 in 131, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nazarov 1622 vs Strutinskiy 1661
Strutinskiy
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nazarov 40% vs Strutinskiy 20%
Nazarov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nazarov 40% vs Strutinskiy 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nazarov -1 · Strutinskiy -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Strutinskiy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strutinskiy form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNazarov 2.20 / Strutinskiy 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Strutinskiy)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234770
Nazarov2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 44 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back24% 20 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 42
Strutinskiy1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 145 of 237
Up 2–0, closes it87% 72 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it73% 104 of 143
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNazarov2wins
AwayStrutinskiy8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStrutinskiy leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNazarov33.3%1 of 3
AwayStrutinskiy85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nazarov3Strutinskiy7n = 10Strutinskiy took 7 of 10
S2Nazarov5Strutinskiy5n = 10split evenly
S3Nazarov5Strutinskiy5n = 10split evenly
S4Nazarov1Strutinskiy6n = 7Strutinskiy took 6 of 7
S5Nazarov1Strutinskiy3n = 4Strutinskiy took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNazarovStrutinskiyN − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.740.1−3.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNazarovStrutinskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime345 / 636 vs 423 / 81854.3%51.7%345 / 636 vs 423 / 818Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyNazarov 2.20/Strutinskiy 1.61
Miss
What we said
58.1%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Strutinskiy @ 1.61 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Nazarov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 12:30A. Nazarov27311941O. Strutinskiy3811511113
WSep 25 · 09:20A. Nazarov45571111113O. Strutinskiy4611119782
LSep 21 · 17:00A. Nazarov4281111572O. Strutinskiy46114911113
LSep 18 · 17:00A. Nazarov48119111072O. Strutinskiy49611912113
LSep 15 · 11:50A. Nazarov29411951O. Strutinskiy3711411113
LSep 14 · 12:00A. Nazarov32121190O. Strutinskiy381413113
LSep 1 · 11:20A. Nazarov5511121111102O. Strutinskiy579101313123
LAug 3 · 15:30A. Nazarov217590O. Strutinskiy331111113
LJul 23 · 18:30A. Nazarov35971181O. Strutinskiy4011117113
WJul 17 · 19:00A. Nazarov331111113O. Strutinskiy176290
A. Nazarov10
LOct 1 · 18:00Y. Riadynskyi1.571211116133A. Nazarov2.251013911112WOct 1 · 17:00A. Nazarov2.1011119113V. Savoliuk1.67971181WOct 1 · 16:00A. Nazarov2.381111113O. Seliuchenko1.538890LOct 1 · 14:30A. Nazarov1.73851171A. Derevianko2.0011119113LOct 1 · 12:30A. Nazarov2.25311941O. Strutinskiy1.5711511113LSep 25 · 12:20A. Nazarov1.73511781A. Derevianko2.0011711113LSep 25 · 10:20E. Hrytsenko3.251111116113A. Nazarov1.3371361182WSep 25 · 09:20A. Nazarov2.20571111113O. Strutinskiy1.6111119782WSep 25 · 08:20I. Nitchenko2.75811451A. Nazarov1.4011611113LSep 25 · 06:50A. Nazarov1.8010780M. Mrykh1.911211113
O. Strutinskiy10
LOct 2 · 12:20I. Nitchenko1.831351311113O. Strutinskiy1.831111111332LOct 2 · 11:20Y. Riadynskyi1.67641112113O. Strutinskiy2.10111141072WOct 2 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.91981111122O. Strutinskiy1.80111189143LOct 2 · 07:50A. Derevianko2.201111113O. Strutinskiy1.618760LOct 2 · 05:50E. Hrytsenko2.501111113O. Strutinskiy1.509870LOct 1 · 19:00V. Savoliuk1.4011511113O. Strutinskiy2.75711491WOct 1 · 17:30O. Strutinskiy2.751111113O. Seliuchenko1.409870LOct 1 · 15:30A. Derevianko2.1091112133O. Strutinskiy1.6711810111WOct 1 · 12:30A. Nazarov2.25311941O. Strutinskiy1.5711511113LSep 25 · 09:20A. Nazarov2.20571111113O. Strutinskiy1.6111119782
Upcoming Matches
A. Nazarov
O. Strutinskiy
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.