TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anatolii Nazarov vs Volodymyr Savoliuk 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119117911118––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:54 and never touched: 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Savoliuk to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Volodymyr Savoliuk @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingAnatolii Nazarov above · Volodymyr Savoliuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Volodymyr Savoliuk at 59.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Nazarov 38–50 Volodymyr Savoliuk Anatolii Nazarov has won 38 of their 88 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 15:5459.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Savoliuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
38-50 in 88
Savoliuk
Wrong
gap of 12 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nazarov 1616 vs Savoliuk 1733
Savoliuk
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nazarov 20% vs Savoliuk 80%
Savoliuk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nazarov 30% vs Savoliuk 70%
Savoliuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nazarov +1 · Savoliuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Savoliuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Savoliuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNazarov 2.10 / Savoliuk 1.666
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Savoliuk)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223566
Nazarov2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 42 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back25% 20 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 42
Savoliuk1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 137 of 205
Up 2–0, closes it93% 66 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it83% 98 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNazarov5wins
AwaySavoliuk5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNazarov66.7%4 of 6
AwaySavoliuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nazarov6Savoliuk4n = 10Nazarov took 6 of 10
S2Nazarov6Savoliuk4n = 10Nazarov took 6 of 10
S3Nazarov6Savoliuk4n = 10Nazarov took 6 of 10
S4Nazarov4Savoliuk3n = 7Nazarov took 4 of 7
S5Nazarov0Savoliuk3n = 3Savoliuk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNazarovSavoliukN − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.739.2+0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNazarovSavoliukBasisWin rate · lifetime344 / 634 vs 303 / 53654.3%56.5%344 / 634 vs 303 / 536Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SavoliukNazarov 2.10/Savoliuk 1.67
Miss
What we said
59%
Savoliuk · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Volodymyr Savoliuk @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Nazarov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 12:30A. Nazarov361112133V. Savoliuk30910110
LSep 15 · 05:50A. Nazarov48613117112V. Savoliuk511111511133
LSep 1 · 09:20A. Nazarov152940V. Savoliuk331111113
WJul 20 · 13:00A. Nazarov4011117113V. Savoliuk32581181
WJul 17 · 15:00A. Nazarov47101115113V. Savoliuk371261361
WJul 13 · 18:30A. Nazarov351113113V. Savoliuk2281130
LJun 15 · 16:20A. Nazarov29115761V. Savoliuk4071111113
LJun 11 · 16:20A. Nazarov54411169142V. Savoliuk581161411163
WJun 8 · 18:20A. Nazarov4111811113V. Savoliuk34811691
LMay 18 · 15:20A. Nazarov5216981182V. Savoliuk551411118113
A. Nazarov10
LOct 1 · 18:00Y. Riadynskyi1.571211116133A. Nazarov2.251013911112WOct 1 · 16:00A. Nazarov2.381111113O. Seliuchenko1.538890LOct 1 · 14:30A. Nazarov1.73851171A. Derevianko2.0011119113LOct 1 · 12:30A. Nazarov2.25311941O. Strutinskiy1.5711511113LSep 25 · 12:20A. Nazarov1.73511781A. Derevianko2.0011711113LSep 25 · 10:20E. Hrytsenko3.251111116113A. Nazarov1.3371361182WSep 25 · 09:20A. Nazarov2.20571111113O. Strutinskiy1.6111119782WSep 25 · 08:20I. Nitchenko2.75811451A. Nazarov1.4011611113LSep 25 · 06:50A. Nazarov1.8010780M. Mrykh1.911211113LSep 21 · 18:00V. Maksuta1.9181211113A. Nazarov1.801110931
V. Savoliuk10
WOct 1 · 15:00Y. Riadynskyi1.6714912982V. Savoliuk2.1012111011113WOct 1 · 14:00V. Savoliuk1.671181311143O. Seliuchenko2.10311155122LOct 1 · 13:00A. Derevianko2.201110115113V. Savoliuk1.6191271132WSep 29 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.5013811113I. Nitchenko2.501111281WSep 29 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.0021161192V. Savoliuk1.73118116113WSep 29 · 08:50E. Hrytsenko2.75614161V. Savoliuk1.40111211113WSep 29 · 07:50V. Savoliuk1.401111113O. Strutinskiy2.757790LSep 29 · 06:50A. Derevianko2.2011116113V. Savoliuk1.61851161WSep 26 · 12:50M. Deineha1.911111831V. Savoliuk1.8081311113LSep 26 · 11:20V. Savoliuk1.44811118132O. Zhyrnov2.63118411153
Upcoming Matches
A. Nazarov
Nothing scheduled
V. Savoliuk
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