TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Rissky vs Jan Vonasek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111181113611––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:48 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Rissky above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 80 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Jan Vonasek at 56.2%
80 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Rissky 4–5 Jan Vonasek Pavel Rissky has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:4856.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vonasek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rissky 1525 vs Vonasek 1608
Vonasek
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rissky 40% vs Vonasek 60%
Vonasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rissky 40% vs Vonasek 60%
Vonasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rissky -3 · Vonasek -1
Rissky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Vonasek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRissky 2.10 / Vonasek 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Vonasek)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13241045
Rissky2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog62% won 16 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back33% 4 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Vonasek1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 76 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it95% 40 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it81% 54 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeRissky4wins
AwayVonasek5wins
4 of 9 to a deciderVonasek leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRissky75%3 of 4
AwayVonasek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rissky4Vonasek5n = 9Vonasek took 5 of 9
S2Rissky3Vonasek6n = 9Vonasek took 6 of 9
S3Rissky5Vonasek4n = 9Rissky took 5 of 9
S4Rissky2Vonasek6n = 8Vonasek took 6 of 8
S5Rissky3Vonasek1n = 4Rissky took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricRisskyVonasekR − VBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match38.238.6−0.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRisskyVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 159 vs 356 / 72040.3%49.4%64 / 159 vs 356 / 720Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekRissky 2.10/Vonasek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vonasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 20 · 15:20P. Rissky50119118113J. Vonasek4271181152
LJul 11 · 12:25P. Rissky356811101J. Vonasek3811114123
LApr 5 · 09:33P. Rissky351157121J. Vonasek4041111143
LApr 5 · 08:20P. Rissky33981151J. Vonasek3811115113
WMar 1 · 10:55P. Rissky48111169113J. Vonasek3975111152
WMar 1 · 08:55P. Rissky43411113143J. Vonasek38112211122
LFeb 15 · 10:25P. Rissky208750J. Vonasek331111113
LFeb 6 · 11:05P. Rissky3983111162J. Vonasek43111164113
WFeb 6 · 07:55P. Rissky4111117123J. Vonasek369611101
P. Rissky10
LOct 4 · 07:20A. Langer2.00111110113P. Rissky1.73751231LOct 4 · 06:50M. Sulc1.8011911113P. Rissky1.91811861LSep 20 · 18:05O. Fiklik1.911211133P. Rissky1.80106110WSep 20 · 16:50P. Rissky2.10711135113M. Sulc1.67112111122WSep 20 · 15:20J. Vonasek1.6171181152P. Rissky2.20119118113LSep 20 · 14:50O. Fiklik1.801112113P. Rissky1.9191090LSep 20 · 13:59M. Sulc1.6771311113P. Rissky2.101111611WSep 20 · 12:20A. Langer2.2088111162P. Rissky1.61111188113WSep 20 · 11:50O. Fiklik1.731011101192P. Rissky2.00129128113LSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113
J. Vonasek10
LOct 4 · 07:50J. Vonasek1.5057100M. Sulc2.501111123WOct 4 · 06:20A. Langer2.388850J. Vonasek1.531111113WOct 1 · 14:09J. Vonasek1.441111113A. Langer2.635570LOct 1 · 12:20L. Moravec3.00871212113J. Vonasek1.361111101092WOct 1 · 11:50A. Langer2.50111110592J. Vonasek1.50841211113WOct 1 · 10:50J. Vonasek1.6111116113M. Filipek2.20891181WSep 30 · 09:58J. Vonasek1.91411116133O. Fiklik1.80115711112WSep 30 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.919111051J. Vonasek1.8011512113LSep 30 · 08:25J. Vonasek1.7391311111V. Hejda Jr2.0011158133LSep 20 · 15:20J. Vonasek1.6171181152P. Rissky2.20119118113
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