TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Vonasek vs Vaclav Hejda Jr 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
91113151181113––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:19 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Vonasek above · Vaclav Hejda Jr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 91 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Jan Vonasek at 54.1%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vonasek 57–45 Vaclav Hejda Jr Vaclav Hejda Jr has won 45 of their 102 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:1954.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vonasek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
57-45 in 102
Vonasek
Wrong
gap of 12 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vonasek 1590 vs Hejda Jr 1600
Hejda Jr
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vonasek 60% vs Hejda Jr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vonasek 60% vs Hejda Jr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vonasek -1 · Hejda Jr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vonasek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVonasek 1.727 / Hejda Jr 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vonasek)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13219282
Vonasek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 75 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it80% 53 of 66
Hejda Jr2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 89 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back27% 23 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVonasek5wins
AwayHejda Jr5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVonasek83.3%5 of 6
AwayHejda Jr100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vonasek6Hejda Jr4n = 10Vonasek took 6 of 10
S2Vonasek3Hejda Jr7n = 10Hejda Jr took 7 of 10
S3Vonasek8Hejda Jr2n = 10Vonasek took 8 of 10
S4Vonasek1Hejda Jr6n = 7Hejda Jr took 6 of 7
S5Vonasek2Hejda Jr1n = 3Vonasek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVonasekHejda JrV − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.439.1+2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVonasekHejda JrBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 715 vs 391 / 79149.2%49.4%352 / 715 vs 391 / 791Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekVonasek 1.73/Hejda Jr 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hejda Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 10:50J. Vonasek521191110113V. Hejda Jr4261161272
LSep 24 · 09:25J. Vonasek48128111162V. Hejda Jr531011813113
WSep 18 · 08:55J. Vonasek331111113V. Hejda Jr237880
LSep 16 · 07:55J. Vonasek3811611101V. Hejda Jr4313117123
LSep 14 · 10:50J. Vonasek29111080V. Hejda Jr361312113
WSep 2 · 10:50J. Vonasek43111011113V. Hejda Jr31712571
WAug 31 · 10:20J. Vonasek431511173V. Hejda Jr33135150
WAug 27 · 13:25J. Vonasek48118117113V. Hejda Jr4341181192
LAug 26 · 09:25J. Vonasek3981011101V. Hejda Jr4411129123
LAug 17 · 12:55J. Vonasek4111111091V. Hejda Jr4313712113
J. Vonasek10
LSep 30 · 06:55A. Langer2.63111189113J. Vonasek1.4417111192WSep 29 · 13:50P. Benes1.36811891J. Vonasek3.0011411113LSep 29 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.756690P. Benes1.401111113WSep 29 · 11:20A. Langer2.507950J. Vonasek1.501111113WSep 29 · 10:50V. Hejda Jr2.1061161272J. Vonasek1.671191110113WSep 24 · 10:15J. Vonasek1.5011116113A. Langer2.50781191LSep 24 · 09:25V. Hejda Jr2.101011813113J. Vonasek1.67128111162LSep 24 · 08:25J. Vonasek2.00511881O. Fiklik1.7311711113WSep 24 · 06:55A. Langer2.38112481J. Vonasek1.5361111113WSep 21 · 10:45J. Vonasek1.731111133D. Sochor2.0065110
V. Hejda Jr10
LSep 30 · 08:55A. Langer1.8311115113V. Hejda Jr1.83881161WSep 30 · 07:25V. Hejda Jr2.6312811113O. Fiklik1.441011391WSep 29 · 13:18A. Langer2.0011119952V. Hejda Jr1.73661111113LSep 29 · 12:20A. Langer1.83512311113V. Hejda Jr1.83111011882WSep 29 · 11:50P. Benes1.53138711122V. Hejda Jr2.381111115143LSep 29 · 10:50V. Hejda Jr2.1061161272J. Vonasek1.671191110113WSep 28 · 13:25V. Hejda Jr1.831213511113M. Sulc1.83141111982LSep 28 · 12:20M. Sochor1.91119911113V. Hejda Jr1.8091111162LSep 28 · 11:50A. Rek1.5791311123V. Hejda Jr2.2511114101WSep 24 · 09:25V. Hejda Jr2.101011813113J. Vonasek1.67128111162
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